Washington Has a Clear Choice on the Future of Iran Nuclear Deal

When it comes to foreign policy, the Trump administration has been engulfed in scandal and intrigue from day one. From the resignation of Michael Flynn, to a botched Yemen raid, to a U.S. bombing campaign in Mosul, Iraq that killed up to 200 civilians, to unrelenting controversy over Russian meddling in our election, it’s difficult to even keep up.

With all these distractions, it is easy to forget that there are important issues that demand thoughtful attention. High among these is the Iran nuclear deal. Not only must the Iran deal compete for attention with other controversies swirling around the White House, it has to withstand antagonism from hawks who refuse to acknowledge its success.

At the annual American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference this week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell criticized the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) for “bestow[ing] a windfall of billions for the Iranian regime to distribute to its proxies.” At the same conference, House Speaker Paul Ryan described the deal as “an unmitigated disaster” that is “dangerous for the United States and for the world.”

Actually, most of the tangible benefits in sanctions relief have gone to improving the economy for every day Iranians. And far from being a “dangerous” and “unmitigated disaster,” the deal has been successful in rolling back Iran’s nuclear program and in easing regional tensions.

The rhetorical abuse visited upon the JCPOA doesn’t bode well for the survival of the deal. And even the relative moderates in the Trump administration – people like Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, frequently described as the “grown-ups,” in contrast with the opposing bloc of “ideologues” – seem more hawkish than pragmatic on Iran.

In other words, the Trump White House exists in an echo chamber of negativity toward the JCPOA. The deal’s survival depends on deliberate administration support and a measured understanding of its benefits.

The Economic Doom-Mongers Have Been Wrong on Brexit So Far

For an economist, it’s rare that events occur enabling us to directly test our economic theories and assess them against outcomes. Britain’s Brexit vote last year was one such moment. As the formal Article 50 process for EU withdrawal begins today, it’s worth re-examining the consensus view on what a “Leave” vote would mean. Those warning of impending doom today are many of the same people who predicted a decision to exit would bring immediate economic slowdown.

The Economists for Brexit group of which I was a founding member was busy refuting anti-Brexit reports pre-referendum. Britain’s Treasury led the way, claiming GDP would be 6.2 per cent smaller after 15 years if Britain exited the EU and single market (replaced with an EU-UK bilateral trade deal, as Prime Minister Theresa May now desires). Importantly, they forecast the mere act of voting to leave would trigger an immediate 4-quarter recession with 500,000 people losing jobs, higher inflation and lower house prices. There would be a “profound economic shock.” The IMF warned that a path towards leaving the single market would mean a recession in 2017. The OECD predicted a “major negative shock.” An Economists for Remain letter signed by 12 Nobel Laureates likewise said “a recession causing job losses will become significantly more likely.”

Yet the UK economy has proven robust. Immediate financial market turbulence following the unexpected vote quickly subsided. Far from contracting at the Treasury’s forecast 0.4 per cent annualized rate, the economy is currently growing at 2.8 per cent per year. The employment rate for 16 to 64 year olds is at its highest ever level, 74.6 percent, with unemployment at just 4.7 percent. House prices are currently increasing at 6.2 per cent per year. Annual broad money growth was 6.6 percent in January – suggesting robust nominal GDP growth through 2017. Even after Theresa May pledged to leave the single market and customs union, forecasters were revising growth estimates upwards for 2017.

The economic consensus did forecast correctly the pound’s fall on a trade-weighted index (around 13 percent decline), as did the Economists for Brexit analysis. This will raise the UK inflation rate. But even the recent uptick in inflation to 2.3 percent is in part driven by increasing commodity prices affecting U.S. and German inflation rates too. The flipside has been strong export order books, highlighted by the Confederation of British Industry’s buoyant survey last week. What happens to the pound in the longer term of course depends on the economic fundamentals, but what is clear is that so far the doom-mongers have been wrong on the macroeconomic impact overall.

Jury Trial Comes Before Supreme Court

Yesterday morning the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Lee v. United States, which concerns the right to counsel and the right to trial by jury.  Here is an excerpt from a piece I had published in The Hill:

Jae Lee came to the United States from South Korea in 1982. At the time, he was just a boy in the care of his parents. Now 48 years old, Lee has lived in the U.S. as a lawful permanent resident for decades. He went to school in New York, but eventually moved to Memphis and got into the restaurant business. According to federal prosecutors, Lee also became a small time drug dealer and, after his arrest, he was facing serious criminal charges.

Like many persons who are accused of a crime, the prosecution offered Lee some leniency in prison time if he would agree to surrender his constitutional right to trial by jury. Naturally, Lee wanted to know all of the legal consequences of accepting the government’s plea offer — so he asked his attorney whether he would be subject to deportation to South Korea. Lee’s attorney assured him that deportation would not be a problem and advised him to accept the plea bargain.

On that recommendation, Lee pled guilty.

As it turned out, Lee received bad legal advice. His conviction meant he was now subject to deportation under federal law. After serving several years in prison, he would eventually be deported to South Korea and essentially banished from the U.S.

On appeal, Lee argues that he only pled guilty because of the recommendation from his lawyer. He wants to take his case before a jury.

Federal prosecutors say there’s no need for a trial because the evidence against Lee is strong.  That’s a curious argument to make.  Our constitutional right to trial by jury doesn’t depend on the government’s assessment of its own case.  And, really, what kind of government would burden us with trillions of dollars of debt and then turn around and, in effect, say “Yes, this person was given incorrect legal advice, and yes, the Bill of Rights says we’re supposed to respect the accused’s right to trial by jury, but this is a situation in which we have to be mindful of the costs related to trials.  Let’s deny a trial to Mr. Lee because it would just be a waste of time and money. He should be grateful for the way his case was handled, for his prison food, and that we’re sending him to South Korea instead of North Korea.”

Here’s a link to the Cato amicus brief in the case.  And if you’d rather listen than read, here’s a link to a Cato podcast interview with Caleb Brown.

Against Ideological Litmus Tests at State-Funded Professional Schools

Craig Keefe was expelled from his state-funded nursing college in Minnesota because something he said was deemed unprofessional. He didn’t break any laws with what he said—there were no threats or anything like that—and wasn’t even on campus at the time. He just made a handful of rude comments on his personal Facebook page, unrelated to any curricular project.

Nevertheless, the school had adopted the American Nurses Association’s code of professional ethics, which forbids behavior “unbecoming of the profession” or that “transgresses personal boundaries,” into its student handbook, so the federal district court rejected Keefe’s challenge to his expulsion. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit affirmed that ruling, effectively holding that that any punishment of speech under the nursing code is effectively free from First Amendment review.

So now Mr. Keefe, represented by Cato adjunct scholar Robert Corn-Revere, is asking the Supreme Court to take his case. Cato, joined by the Electronic Frontier Foundation, National Coalition Against Censorship, and Student Press Law Center, and with the help of Prof. Eugene Volokh and the UCLA First Amendment Clinic, has filed a brief supporting that request.

First Amendment protection is critical at universities, where complicated and controversial ideas are supposed to be formulated and debated. If uncorrected, the Eighth Circuit opinion permitting Keefe’s expulsion will set a dangerous precedent: Colleges will be able to punish students for expressing their views, based simply on administrators’ judgments that certain speech is inconsistent with their subjective understanding of professionalism.

Many professional-ethics codes—including the one at issue here—embody specific ideological commitments that might not be shared by large numbers of students, while also containing vague requirements that members uphold those values in their daily lives. The Eighth Circuit has opened the door for professional schools, including law and business schools, to enforce ideological litmus tests under the guise of ensuring adherence to professional ethics. Indeed, we have already seen—in cases the lower court cites to defend its position—students being targeted for their beliefs (for example, Keeton v. Anderson-Wiley (11th Cir. 2011), where a student was disciplined for statements disapproving of homosexuality).

Allowing viewpoint discrimination by way of professional codes of conduct opens up a gigantic loophole in the First Amendment’s freedom of speech, and in constitutional protections for conscience rights more broadly.

The Supreme Court will decide before it breaks for the summer at the end of June whether to take Keefe v. Adams.

Why Does President Trump Want to Pump Prime the Economy?

It is difficult to forecast what President Trump’s fiscal legacy will be. He’s sought credit for a recent reduction in public debt, but pledged not to touch the entitlement programs which are its key long-term driver, while also cutting taxes. His team has talked of the need for high-quality infrastructure investment to boost productivity, but leaked memos suggest priority projects must be “shovel ready” and “direct job creators” – different short-term aims.

Anybody hopeful that the fiscal conservative lines of this muddled agenda might win out might want to think again. It looks as if Trump has “stimulus” rather than a supply-side agenda in mind. Here’s an interview excerpt from The NYT:

Trump seemed much less animated by the subject of budget cuts than the subject of spending increases. “We’re also going to prime the pump,” he said. “You know what I mean by ‘prime the pump’? In order to get this” — the economy — “going, and going big league, and having the jobs coming in and the taxes that will be cut very substantially and the regulations that’ll be going, we’re going to have to prime the pump to some extent. In other words: Spend money to make a lot more money in the future. And that’ll happen.”

Let us presume for the sake of argument that Trump is a Keynesian who believes that government spending can be used to re-inflate the economy from downturns. Let us also assume that this kind of agenda works as Keynesian theory predicts. We can still ponder: why does the U.S. economy need a fiscal stimulus now? Theory (even Keynesian) and evidence suggests it does not.

1. Theory would suggest fiscal stimulus is not effective when there is little “spare capacity.” Whatever Trump thinks about the veracity of the statistics, the US economy is close to “full employment.” The civilian unemployment rate currently stands at 4.7 percent, only slightly above the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate for the “natural rate of unemployment.” The job openings rate is now running above that seen pre-crisis, quit rates are about the same as they were prior to the crash. The U5 unemployment rate (which adds marginally attached workers to the official rate) and the U6 unemployment rate (which adds those who are part-time for economic reasons) are at levels seen in the middle of the 2000s and construction unemployment is lower than in 2007. In such an environment, any attempted macroeconomic stimulus through infrastructure investment would be highly likely to crowd out private sector activity.

2. Theory suggests fiscal stimulus will be offset by monetary policy. Given the Fed has begun to raise its target rate, Keynesian theory would suggest monetary policy would offset any expansionary fiscal policy. Paul Krugman spelled this argument out clearly when he wrote “spending can be withdrawn later on without hurting employment, because once you’re out of the liquidity trap the Fed can offset the contractionary effects of a fiscal tightening by holding off on the monetary tightening it would otherwise have pursued.

CBO Projections: Unhealthy Basis for Health Policy

In the political hullabaloo over efforts to shift costs of health care to someone else, the argument for keeping Obamacare’s compulsory insurance and ever-expanding Medicaid enrollment relies naïvely on notoriously comical Congressional Budget Office (CBO) 10-year “projections.” 

CBO claims the initial House Republican plan would eventually cause 3 million to “lose” health insurance simply because they would no longer be fined up to 2.5% of income for not buying a policy designed by and for politicians. This not a loss, but a gain – in freedom of choice.

CBO claims the GOP plan would “lose” another 14 million by not expanding Medicaid enrollment as rapidly as Obamacare hopes to. The federal government pays about 57% of the cost of Medicaid for poor people, but 90-93% (until 2022) to the 31 states that provide Medicaid to those earning up to 138% of the poverty line. That has added 17 million to the Medicaid rolls, and enriched big health insurers and Kaiser Permanente.

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