President Trump wanted his own sovereign wealth fund. When the White House realized it would require congressional action, the administration went ahead and started building an ad hoc portfolio anyway, one deal at a time. Section 1051 of the Senate’s fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act would reward the administration for its opaque and legally dubious equity operation. It would give the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital a dedicated account and express authority through 2037 to buy stakes in suppliers of critical minerals, materials, chemicals, and batteries.
Cato at Liberty
Cato at Liberty
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The Goldilocks Moment to End the Iran War
The American people are eager to see the Iran war end. They showed no mercy in delivering that message in the midterm elections last week. Despite all the post-election spin, even the president and the vice president both validated voter frustration with the war and its impacts here at home. Now, having delivered a clear mandate, voters expect Congress to act.
Yet, as Congress returns to finish out the year, members are debating whether to push for an end to the war in the lame duck or wait until the new Congress begins in January. Acting now, especially while the president continues to hold off on resumption of major combat operations, is the most advantageous option for Congress. The biggest single point of leverage Congress holds over the president when it comes to the war is money, and money is the hottest item on the table, captivating the bulk of Capitol Hill’s attention from now until Christmas.
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Farm Owners Accused of Labor Violations Have the Right to a Federal Trial
The Founders’ creation of an independent judiciary was a central constitutional achievement. When the Supreme Court decides Department of Labor v. Sun Valley Orchards, that decision will shed light on how well the Constitution’s promise of an independent judiciary is being kept today.
The Lame-Duck Choice: Shortcuts or Responsibility
With Democrats taking control of the House and Senate in January 2027, Republicans are scrambling to pass as much of their agenda as possible during the lame-duck session. The rush will tempt the short-term majority to use a political shortcut: enacting new spending without paying for it. That can be expedient, but it does not justify drowning the country in more red ink.
Adding to America’s $40.5 trillion gross debt would be an irresponsible way for Republicans to use the final weeks of their trifecta. At a time of low unemployment and economic growth, deficits add to inflation and interest-rate pressures, meaning higher prices and heavier mortgage payments.
Republicans will have many opportunities to choose between political shortcuts and fiscal responsibility during the lame duck and must shrink deficits rather than add to them.
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Will Republicans Learn Anything from Tuesday? Watch the NDAA Buyback Ban
Many people are viewing Tuesday’s election results as a rejection of the administration’s policies, a view that’s hard to argue with. Still, whether the Republican Party quickly moves away—or moves at all—from the populist policies that appear to have brought electoral ruin remains an open question.
One small litmus test that’s quickly coming up is a ban on stock buybacks that a group of populist senators squeezed into the “must-pass” National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Members of the House were able to keep it out of their version of the NDAA, but the legislation is moving, and the two chambers will soon have to reconcile (possibly by Thanksgiving).
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How the Ballot Measures Fared
While you were busy attending to the earthquake at the national politics level, voters around the states were addressing civic matters on their initiative and referendum ballots. Some results on issues I previewed last month, plus a few others:
- California voters rejected Proposition 40, which would have imposed a retroactive wealth tax, and instead approved Proposition 42, which bans both wealth taxes and retroactive taxes. Unfortunately, voters in Colorado narrowly approved a graduated income tax. Measures to limit income tax succeeded in North Carolina and Iowa but failed in Washington.
- Efforts to build things in California will continue to be hobbled by the objector-friendly provisions of the notorious California Environmental Quality Act, or CEQA, after a partial rollback of the law failed.
- Read the rest of this post →
Three Things the Midterm Election Tells Us About AI and the Likely Future of AI Policy
The 2026 midterm elections are significant for the ongoing debate over AI policy in three ways: first, the role that AI played in the election itself; second, the outcomes of AI questions on the ballot and AI’s role in voter decision-making; and third, the impact of election results on existing AI policy debates.
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AI Disinformation Still Isn’t an Election-Disrupting Problem
With AI’s rising popularity, the midterms are not the first time we’ve seen concerns over AI-powered election disruption. The 2024 election saw a great deal of rhetoric around such potential concerns. In fact, 2024 saw the World Economic Forum label AI-powered misinformation the world’s greatest short-term threat. But the worst-case scenario did not come to pass in 2024. In fact, despite these concerns, AI tools in the 2024 election had an underwhelming impact.