Every few weeks, fresh speculation emerges about when the Federal Reserve will change its interest rate target, followed by confident claims that this decision will drastically alter the mortgage, auto, or credit card rates that weigh on American households. The assumption beneath the coverage is that the Fed sets the cost of borrowing, so its next move matters more than anything else. People don’t want to hear that the Fed matters less than “everyone” thinks, but at the very least, the past seven months are enough to question exactly how much the Fed controls rates.
The Fed has held its rate target steady since its December cut. But as this table shows, nearly every rate Americans actually borrow at has climbed over the same stretch.