A recent study points out the dearth of historical research on the macroeconomic effects of tariffs, especially as a tool to analyze modern-day tariffs. The study
addressed this challenge by analyzing all major US tariff rate changes from 1840 to 2024. Drawing on historical research, congressional records, and statutes, we identified … 21 tariff rate changes, which we used to examine the macroeconomic effects of tariffs.
These examples
reveal that increasing tariff rates contracted the US economy. … [T]ariff increases did not shield domestic industry despite their protective intent. Additionally, trade contracted markedly.