Brexit Talks Get Underway

The negotiations on the UK exiting the EU start today. Here’s the BBC:

Brexit Secretary David Davis will call for “a deal like no other in history” as he heads into talks with the EU.

Subjects for the negotiations, which officially start in Brussels later, include the status of expats, the UK’s “divorce bill” and the Northern Ireland border.

Mr Davis said there was a “long road ahead” but predicted a “deep and special partnership”.

The UK is set to leave the EU by the end of March 2019.

Day one of the negotiations will start at about 11:00 BST at European Commission buildings in Brussels.

Mr Davis and the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier, a former French foreign minister and EU commissioner, will give a joint press conference at the end of the day. 

I’ve sensed some growing concerns about how well these talks might go, and the recent UK general election only made things worse. It’s not clear to me that the politicians who are in charge here can make this a success. Time will tell.

If you are looking for something positive related to Brexit, however, once the UK does leave the EU the personnel situation on the technical side of things is looking good. On Friday, the UK Department of International Trade announced that it had hired Crawford Falconer as the Chief Trade Negotiation Advisor. From the announcement: 

Together with his team Crawford will:

  • develop and negotiate free trade agreements and market access deals with non-EU countries
  • negotiate plurilateral trade deals on specific sectors or products
  • make the department a ‘centre of excellence’ for negotiation and British trade
  • support the UK’s membership of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Falconer is not a household name, but he is someone that I am very familiar with. I had just been reading his latest co-authored work. He was one of the judges (technically, a “panelist”) on a WTO dispute panel that ruled earlier this month on whether the U.S. has complied with a previous ruling related to the subsidies it provides to Boeing. He has also acted as a judge in 14 other GATT/WTO decisions.

Now, you may say, international adjudication is all well and good, but how about trade negotiations? Does he have any experience there? In fact, he does. He is a dual UK/New Zealand citizen and has been negotiating for New Zealand for many years. He was New Zealand’s Ambassador to the WTO in Geneva from 2005-2008 (and during that time, in his personal capacity, he chaired the Doha Round negotiations on agriculture and cotton). His LinkedIn page has more on his professional background.

There is still a long way to go before we get to the point of the UK negotiating free trade deals of its own. But once we do get there, its trade policy team is in pretty good hands.

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The Consensus in Favor of BRAC

Today a broad coalition of more than 40 different scholars from over 30 different think tanks and academic institutions have issued a letter calling on the relevant House and Senate committees to grant the Pentagon authority to reduce excess military infrastructure. Simply, we need another Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) round. The full letter can be found here.

All of the signatories, myself included, signed as individuals, not as representatives of their respective institutions. But the breadth and depth of the coalition reflected in their affiliations, from the Center for American Progress and Peace Action to Americans for Tax Reform and FreedomWorks, shows just how much support exists for a process that has helped the military to deal with its excess overhead in five rounds beginning in the late 1980s through the mid-2000s, and that could do so fairly again.

The letter stresses points that I have made elsewhere (e.g. here, here and here). The Pentagon has repeatedly requested authority to close unneeded or underutilized bases. It estimates its capacity exceeds its needs by over 20 percent, and that is true even if the U.S. military remains at its current size, or grows modestly. The Obama administration asked Congress to approve BRAC, as has the Trump administration.

The objections to BRAC focus too narrowly on the economic harms that can come to communities affected by a base closure, without seeing the opportunities created when underutilized property is made available to redevelopment. There is pain. No one disputes that. But it is possible for communities to recover from a base closure, some have done so very quickly, and most emerge with a stronger, more diversified economic base after a military base is closed.

We conclude:

BRAC has proven to be a fair and efficient process for making the difficult but necessary decisions related to the configuration of our military’s infrastructure. In the absence of a BRAC, defense communities are hurting. Although members of Congress have blocked base closures with the intent of helping these communities, they are actually making the problem worse. The time to act is now. Congress should grant our military the authority to eliminate waste, and ensure that vital defense resources flow to where they are most needed.

Read the full letter.

Betting on Freedom: The Federal Ban on States Legalizing Sports Gambling

Have you ever played fantasy sports for money? Have you ever participated in your office March Madness pool? Well, if you did, you may have broken federal law, which is quite ridiculous. If you’ve bet on your local jai alai match, though, that was probably safe.

In sports gambling, as is so often the case with many things, the law is not keeping up with our behavior and attitudes. There’s a growing movement to modernizing our gambling laws, including some new coalitions, such as the American Sports Betting Coalition (ASBC), and at least one case pending at the Supreme Court. That case, Christie v. NCAA, is a challenge to the constitutionality of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992 (PASPA). Cato supported the petition, which will be discussed by the justices next week. 

PASPA outlawed sports betting, with the exception of horse racing and jai alai (obviously), in most states. In classic, horse-trading style, carve outs were made for Oregon, Delaware, Montana, and Nevada. Even worse, the law prohibits states from “authorizing” sports gambling “by law,” which should be regarded as a violation of states’ rights protected by the Tenth Amendment—but the Third Circuit didn’t see it that way. The irony, of course, is that 44 states and 47 jurisdictions (D.C., U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico) all have government-run lotteries, because evidently those governments are okay with gambling that benefits their budgets.

By overturning the restrictive federal ban on sports betting, states will be empowered to make their own decision about whether or not to allow it. If states were able to make their own laws about sports betting, areas where it is allowed could see economic growth sparked by increased tourism and an increase in betting-related jobs, as well as other industries springing up around this new frontier of economic possibility. Oxford Economics—one of the world’s leaders in global forecasting and quantitative analysis—has estimated that legal sports betting could add $14 billion to the national economy, generate up to $27 billion in total economic impact, and support 152,000 American jobs. In addition to these economic benefits, overturning such a ban would give states and local law enforcement the ability to oversee legal gambling, thus taking power from dangerous underground gambling rings. 

At its root, this is an issue of federalism; people in cities and towns across America should be able to decide for themselves if sports betting is something they want for their communities. Many of them do; nearly 7 in 10 Americans believe that the issue should not be left to the federal government, and 72 percent of avid sports fans support the legalization of sports betting. 

“Everyone Is Terrible”

That is the subject line from a friend’s email that passed along this story about the latest proposed escalation of the Drug War:

Congress is considering a bill that would expand the federal government’s ability to pursue the war on drugs, granting new power to the attorney general to set federal drug policy. 

My friend explained in a follow-up call that, as he started reading, he assumed the bill reflected Jeff Sessions’ passion for the Drug War, but he then realized the bill is bi-partisan insanity:

The bipartisan legislation, sponsored by powerful committee chairs in both chambers of Congress, would allow the attorney general to unilaterally outlaw certain unregulated chemical compounds on a temporary basis. It would create a special legal category for these drugs, the first time in nearly 50 years that the Controlled Substances Act has been expanded in this way. And it would set penalties, potentially including mandatory minimum sentences, for the manufacture and distribution of these drugs.

Hence my friend’s assessment that “everyone” is terrible (on drug policy).

This is an important point. Much discussion assumes liberals are more libertarian-leaning on drug policy than conservatives. This is partly right; liberals are more likely to favor marijuana legalization, for example.

But many liberals endorse marijuana legalization because they view marijuana as relatively benign, not because of a principled stance for freedom or a consistent understanding that prohibition of any substance almost certainly causes more harm than good. Thus politicians across the spectrum are indeed “terrible” on drug policy.

 

Of Guns and Immigrants

Free society came under attack twice this month, first when Islamists rammed a van into pedestrians and went on a knife-slashing rampage in the Southwark district of London, and then when a gunman opened fire on Republican lawmakers in the Del Ray neighborhood of Northern Virginia.

In both cases, police had barely begun their investigations when an American politician—first the Republican president, then a Democratic governor—seized on the carnage to advocate political causes via electronic media.

In the hours after the London attack, President Trump took to Twitter to push his administration’s proposed travel ban on people from several predominantly Muslim countries:

Then, in the first police briefing on the Del Ray shooting, Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe called for expanded gun control:

It’s reasonable for a politician to advocate policies that he thinks will reduce future recurrences of a fresh tragedy. However, Trump’s immigration proposals are supported by people who typically oppose McAuliffe’s gun control proposals, and McAuliffe’s are supported by people who typically oppose Trump’s. This is puzzling because the proposals themselves are remarkably similar: they would constrain individuals’ freedoms in an effort to improve public safety. So why do the two proposals get such different responses from different people?

It’s not that there’s a big difference in the risk to public safety posed by immigrants or guns. Both have proven to be harmful, in the sense that both immigrants and guns have caused violence. But the risk posed by the typical gun or immigrant is tiny.

School Inc. Under Attack: Milton Friedman, PBS, and the Quixotic Pursuit of “Balance” in Public Broadcasting

Our departed colleague Andrew Coulson spent the last years of his life producing School Inc., a wonderful and informative documentary about the possibilities of private, choice-based schooling. I highly recommend it. Amazingly, at least to me, PBS agreed to air the documentary, and in April it debuted on PBS stations around the country.

Unsurprisingly, a chorus of critics are angered that PBS would air such a program. Media Matters for America seems to call for the outright censorship of any critique of public education on public television by wondering, “why would a public broadcast channel air a documentary that is produced by a right-wing think tank and funded by ultra-conservative donors, and that presents a single point of view without meaningful critique, all the while denigrating public education?” Diane Ravitch, a prominent critic of private schools, complains that “uninformed viewers who see this very slickly produced program will learn about the glories of unregulated schooling, for-profit schools, [and] teachers selling their lessons to students on the Internet,” but “what they will not see or hear is the other side of the story.” Now a petition has been started calling for PBS to air “the other side” of the story by showing the anti-private school film Backpack Full of Cash.

I have nothing against showing the “other side” to Andrew’s series, but we need to put this debate in context. When it comes to PBS and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, the “other side” that doesn’t get heard is usually the conservative or libertarian side, and CPB has generally been deeply antagonistic to those ideas. That Ravitch and others are now the ones complaining is at least somewhat ironic.

Crying “Coup,” Red and Blue

History hasn’t been kind to Alexander Hamilton’s hypothesis, in Federalist 68, that “there will be a constant probability of seeing the [office of the presidency] filled by characters pre-eminent for ability and virtue.” Still, he was spot-on in No. 65, when he predicted that impeachment debates would stoke partisan rancor, driving “pre-existing factions [to] enlist all their animosities, partialities, influence, and interest on one side or on the other.”

Impeachment talk started unusually early in the Trump administration, and seems likely to get louder as we go. So far it’s been an even richer source of hyperbole and hypocrisy than the judicial filibuster.

“Congress must begin impeachment proceedings immediately,” insists MoveOn.org, the activist group born in a 1998 campaign urging Congress to “Move On to pressing issues facing the country,” instead of impeaching Bill Clinton. They’ve lately developed an interest in presidential obstruction of justice, so today MoveOn would rather linger. Meanwhile, the American Spectator—the magazine that put itself on the map (and the Paula Jones lawsuit in play) with investigative reporting on Clinton’s sex scandals—already has a case of “impeachment fatigue.”The times are sour and ill-mannered enough without unnecessary strife over removal of a duly elected president of the United States,” William Murchison sniffs at the AmSpec site. 

As I noted in a piece for U.S. News earlier this week, the emerging refrain on the Right is that anyone who dares mention the “I-word” has thrown in with a vast left-wing conspiracy plotting “a coup attempt against a lawfully elected government.” That’s from Dinesh D’Souza, but Gary BauerTom TancredoBen SteinLou Dobbs, and Pat Buchanan are all singing from the same hymnal. If Trump is eventually brought down via impeachment, Buchanan charges, “this city will have executed a nonviolent coup against a constitutionally elected president.” 

In our last national debate over impeachment, the coup was on the other foot (sorry!). Congressional Democrats used the term liberally, railing against the GOP attempt to remove Bill Clinton for perjury and obstruction of justice. “A partisan coup d’etat,” cried Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY); a “Republican coup d’etat,” echoed John Conyers (D-MI). Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) pronounced herself appalled by “the raw, unmasked, unbridled hatred and meanness that drives this impeachment coup d’etat, this unapologetic disregard for the voice of the people.’’

All three are, of course, still in Congress today, ready to weigh in Trump’s current predicament. Nadler has affirmed that “impeachment[’s] a possibility”; “Auntie Maxine” is leading the charge, and while it doesn’t appear that Conyers has used the “I-word” yet, it’s surely just a matter of time, given that he’s tried to impeach nearly every Republican president over his five-decade career, (while giving Democrats a pass for similar behavior).