Policies intended to make college more affordable have failed spectacularly. The federal government’s biggest tools—student loans and tax credits—can theoretically improve affordability. In practice, however, they’ve fueled rising prices by giving colleges more room to harvest aid for their own purposes.
When the HOPE tax credit was introduced in 1998, some colleges responded by raising prices while others cut students’ institutional aid “roughly dollar-for-dollar.” The same thing happened with Grad PLUS loans, launched in 2006: Graduate program prices “increased by $0.75 per $1 increase in average per-student Grad PLUS loans.” Even accounting for colleges recycling some of that captured revenue into institutional aid, net prices increased by $0.64 per new $1 in lending. Colleges rather than students thus benefited from most of the funding.
State funding of public colleges tells a similar story. Lawmakers assume that if states increase their funding, colleges will reduce their tuition prices. But four decades of data from 1980 to 2024 show there is no relationship between changes in state funding and changes in tuition, meaning that there’s no reliable way to “buy” lower tuition by increasing state funding.
Worse, higher education subsidies, by encouraging many more students to attend college, drive credential inflation—students needing higher degrees to obtain positions in the workforce that previously didn’t require them. This makes life less affordable by burdening many graduates with unnecessary costs and debts for a given career.
Ultimately, reducing subsidies and curbing this overconsumption is desirable policy. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act took some welcome steps in that direction, ending the highly inflationary Grad PLUS program and limiting other federal student loans. But because rolling back aid can raise short-term costs for students, our near-term focus here is instead on supply-side reforms that would boost competition and affordability without dumping yet more money into a broken system.