Sometimes what does not happen is the most important thing in politics.
Nancy Johnson is a twelve-term Republican member of the House of Representatives. But she has a problem. Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 ran better in her district than they did in the nation as a whole. Nancy Johnson, a Republican, represents a district that all things being equal would elect a Democrat.
Nancy Johnson should be facing the fight of her life this fall given the problems of the Bush administration and the general unpopularity of the congressional Republicans. As the New York Times reports (subscription required), she is facing a tough fight. Her opponent has raised some money and is trying to tie Rep. Johnson to President Bush.
But Johnson’s fight for survival will not be as tough as it might have been. Prior to McCain-Feingold passing in 2002, labor unions, corporations and other groups could buy ads that discussed issues in ways critical of incumbent members of Congress. For example, a group could support an ad that said: “Nancy Johnson helped George Bush pass a bad prescription drug plan that helped the Big Drug Companies and hurt our seniors. Call Nancy Johnson and tell her to stop helping the Big Drug Companies and hurting our seniors.”
Not surprisingly, vulnerable Republicans in Congress like Nancy Johnson did not like such ads. Such Republicans provided the crucial support in the House to pass McCain-Feingold, which prohibited labor unions and corporations and other groups from running these ads. So much for free speech, but Nancy Johnson will have an easier race this fall.
But maybe not. After all, Democrats used 527 groups to try to defeat President Bush in 2004. Maybe the 527s could show up in Nancy Johnson’s district saying mean things about the incumbent. But again, maybe not. The House has passed, and the Senate seems likely to approve, a bill that essentially ends the 527 option.
So Nancy Johnson is likely to survive this fall, precisely because her constituents will not hear political speech they might have heard if McCain-Feingold had not been enacted.
Nancy Johnson, by the way, was one of the first House Republicans to support McCain-Feingold.