Special Two-Day Conference

January 12-13, 2009 – 8:00 a.m. - 6:15 p.m. – F.A. Hayek Auditorium

Cato Institute
1000 Massachusetts Ave., N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20001

| Conference Schedule | Registration |

With a new administration in the White House, January 2009 will be the starting point for a new approach to U.S. counterterrorism efforts. This conference presents solid, immensely practical analyses of strategic counterterrorism policies based on the lessons and experiences of the past eight years and earlier, and on what proven strategies will yield the most beneficial results for the United States. In addition, the conference focuses on defining realistic objectives and allocating military, federal and state government expenditures according to these goals. To accomplish this, an outstanding group of national and global experts has been assembled to share their insights, accomplishments, and strategic recommendations for the coming administration.

Due to enormous demand we are unable to accept any further registrations. However, to accommodate the public interest in this Conference, we will be Webcasting the event live. We hope you will choose to attend other public programs we will be offering through the year.

This Conference is made possible through the generosity of The Atlantic Philanthropies.

Conference Schedule

Monday, January 12

8:00 - 9:00 a.m. Registration and Continental Breakfast

9:00 - 10:30 a.m. Panel I: How Overreaction and Misdirection Play into the Terrorism Strategy

Terrorism seeks to weaken strong powers like the United States by goading them to overreact and waste their own blood and treasure, give sympathy and recruiting gains to terrorists, and come loose from their ideological moorings. Beyond avoiding war and misdirected homeland security efforts, counterterrorism strategy requires some subtle awareness of the different ways a victim state's actions can play into terrorists' hands. Countering the strategic logic of terrorism will require the new administration to adopt some very disciplined responses and deny superficially appealing impulses toward overreaction.

Jim Harper, Director of Information Policy Studies, Cato Institute  
Paddy Hillyard, Professor of Sociology, Queen's University, Belfast  
Michael German, Policy Counsel, ACLU  
Robert Hutchings, Diplomat in Residence, Princeton University  

Chair: Christopher Preble, Director of Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute

Download a Podcast of Panel I (MP3)

10:45 a.m. - 12:15 p.m. Panel II: Terrorism's Causes: Grievances, Goals, or Gang Membership

Much effort has gone into discovering terrorism's causes, but the roots are as diverse as the groups that adopt terrorism as a tactic.  Terrorists are not homogenous from place to place, or even within organizations.  Some may regard themselves as geopolitical actors with articulated grievances, and others may be disaffected youth drawn to a thrill-kill cult.  Understanding all the motivations that animate terrorists can help to frame a proactive and comprehensive counterterrorism strategy.

Mia Bloom, Assistant Professor of International Affairs, University of Georgia  
James Forest, Director of Terrorism Studies and Associate Professor, Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, US Military Academy  
Robert Pape, Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago 
Max Abrahms, Predoctoral Fellow, Stanford University

Chair: Walter Reich, Yitzhak Rabin Memorial Professor of International Affairs, Ethics and Human Behavior, George Washington University  

Download a Podcast of Panel II (MP3)

12:15 - 1:00 p.m. Lunch

1:15 - 1:45 p.m. Keynote Address

Steve Coll
President and CEO, New America Foundation, and author of Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan and Bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001 (2004), and The Bin Ladens: An Arabian Family in the American Century (2008).  

Watch the Keynote Address

Download a Podcast of the Keynote Address (MP3)

1:45 - 3:15 p.m. Panel III: Terrorist Groups: A Status Report

Following more than seven years of enormous pressure brought to bear on al Qaeda and similar groups after the 9/11 attacks, it is important to assess its status, and the status of other terrorist groups.  While some networks and groups have suffered serious setbacks, they have also been tenacious.  Meanwhile, other groups and networks may have formed. How has al Qaeda central evolved since 9/11? What role do self-starters play? And how have other terrorist organizations adapted their operations to circumvent counterterrorism measures?

Andrew Mack, Director, Human Security Report Project, Simon Fraser University
Marc Sageman, Principal, Sageman Consulting, LLC
Audrey Kurth Cronin, Professor, National War College

Chair: Christopher Preble, Director of Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute

Watch Panel III

Download a Podcast of Panel III (MP3)

3:30 - 5:00 p.m. Panel IV: Assessing Terrorists' Capability to use Weapons of Mass Destruction

According to most analysts, the greatest national security threat Americans face comes from terrorists armed with weapons of mass destruction. Yet most analysis of such threats tends towards worst-case scenario creation rather than careful net assessment of terrorist's capability to employ these weapons. How do we judge the odds of these attacks? What are the policy implications of this analysis?

John Mueller
, Professor of Political Science, Ohio State University
Randall Larsen, National Security Advisor, Center for Biosecurity — UPMC
Milton Leitenberg, Senior Research Scholar, Center for International and Security Studies, University of Maryland
Jim Walsh, Principal Research Scientist, Security Studies Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Chair: Benjamin Friedman, Research Fellow, Cato Institute

Watch Panel IV

Download a Podcast of Panel IV (MP3)

5:30 - 6:15 p.m. Reception

Tuesday, January 13

8:00 - 9:00 a.m. Continental Breakfast

9:00 - 10:30 a.m. Panel V: Domestic Security: Risk Management and Cost-Benefit Analysis

The cost of terrorism comes largely from the government's response to it. Risk-based security policies attempt to weigh the risk of terrorism against the risk of the policies designed to confront it. Is it possible to build such considerations into the institutional design of our domestic security bureaucracy? What changes are needed in the way we make and budget for homeland security policy to make it risk-based?  What can we learn from the Department of Defense and regulatory agencies?

James Lewis, Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies  
Jeremy Shapiro, Fellow and Director of Research, Brookings Institution  
Bruce Schneier, Chief Security Technology Officer, BT Counterpane  
Cindy Williams, Principal Research Scientist, Security Studies Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology  

Chair: Benjamin Friedman, Research Fellow, Cato Institute

Watch Panel V

Download a Podcast of Panel V (MP3)

10:45 a.m. - 12:15 p.m. Panel VI: Military Force: Proactive Counterterrorism or Provocation?

President George W. Bush launched two major military operations — in Afghanistan and Iraq — in the name of combating terrorism, but many critics declared the war in Iraq to have been a dangerous distraction from the fight against al Qaeda. Although the Bush administration achieved some of its greatest successes in operations that did not involve the use of conventional military power, the Iraq war largely confirmed the terrorists' narrative that the United States is determined to occupy Muslim lands. These widespread beliefs are likely to cast a pall over U.S. counterterrorism efforts in the next administration. This panel will examine the role that military force should play in counterterrorism strategy, and explore the risks that a military response could be counterproductive.

Steven Simon, Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations 
Jim Carafano, Assistant Director, Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, Heritage Foundation 
Dan Byman, Associate Professor, Director of Center for Peace and Security Studies,  Georgetown University 

Chair: Paul Pillar, Visiting Professor, Georgetown University

Download a Podcast of Panel VI (MP3)

12:15 - 1:00 p.m. Lunch

1:15 - 1:45 p.m. Keynote Address

Paul Slovic
A founder and President of Decision Research, concentrating on the study of human judgment, decision making, and risk analysis.  Past President of the Society for Risk Analysis; recipient of the Distinguished Scientific Contribution Award from the American Psychological Association, and of an Outstanding Contribution to Science Award from the Oregon Academy of Science.

Watch the Keynote Address

Download a Podcast of the Keynote Address (MP3)

1:45 - 3:15 p.m. Panel VII: Responsibility for Protection: Federal, State, Local, Private, and Personal

Though the federal government has principle responsibility for domestic security, what is true of all politics is true of terrorism: All attacks are local.  Most day-to-day security measures are local. The federal government is uniquely suited for some counterterrorism work, starting with intelligence collection and dissemination, but state and local officials are often better positioned to weigh investment in counterterrorism against competing demands. Private actors often have incentive to pay for their own security, especially when liability is correctly assigned. The panel will discuss what division of labor among the national government, states, localities, and the private sector will best provide domestic security in the most cost-effective ways.

Matt Mayer, Chief Executive Officer and President, Provisum Strategies  
Edward Flynn, Chief of Police, Milwaukee Police Department  
Robert Ross, Chief, Risk Sciences Branch, Special Programs Division, Department of Homeland Security  

Chair: Veronique de Rugy, Senior Research Fellow, Mercatus Center, George Mason University

Watch Panel VII

Download a Podcast of Panel VII (MP3)

3:30 - 5:00 p.m. Panel VIII: Communicating about Terrorism and Terrorist Attacks

With fear acting as a "force multiplier" in the terrorism strategy, careful communications are an essential part of strategic counterterrorism.  The way that political leaders and the media talk about terrorism, and how they might communicate with the public in the event of a terrorist attack, can have a tremendous effect on whether terrorism "succeeds" or fails.  What are the messages, words, and media strategies that the new administration should incorporate into its communications strategy to secure the country against fear and overreaction?

William Burns, Research Scientist, Decision Research  
Shaun Waterman, Homeland and National Security Editor, United Press International  
Jeff Eller, President and CEO Public Strategies, Inc.  
Ben Goddard, Partner, Executive Creative Director, GCSA

Chair: Jim Harper, Director of Information Policy Studies, Cato Institute

Watch Panel VIII in Real Video
Media Name: ipod.jpg
Download a Podcast of Panel VIII (MP3)

5:30 - 6:15 p.m. Reception

Paddy Hillyard began his academic career at the then New University of Ulster. He moved to the University of Bristol in 1976, and following the establishment of the new School of Policy Studies in 1995, he became Director of the Centre for Research on Social Exclusion and Social Justice. In 1999, he moved back to Ireland and took up the Chair in Social Policy at the University of Ulster. In January 2005, he was appointed to a Chair in Sociology at Queen's University Belfast.

Hillyard's main research interest is in social order and control in modern welfare states focusing on a number of substantive areas: 'crime', social harm, political violence, poverty and inequality. His past research has explored the changing strategies used to deal with political violence in Northern Ireland and Britain and the move towards a more coercive form of regulation in Britain involving the accretion of greater power to the police and other organizations which are non-accountable and not subject to adequate democratic control. More recently, his research has focused on poverty, conflict and inequality in Northern Ireland. His latest research project funded by the Economic and Social Research Council explored women's security and participation in three transitional societies - Northern Ireland, South Africa and the Lebanon. Along with colleagues at Bristol and Liverpool, he is interested in developing a new discipline, which they are calling Zemiology (from the Greek zemia), focusing on the study of the range of the social harms which people experience from the cradle to the grave, only a small proportion of which are captured by the criminal law.

Michael German is the policy counsel for national security and privacy for the American Civil Liberties Union Washington Legislative Office. In this capacity German develops policy positions and proactive strategies on pending legislation and executive branch actions concerning domestic surveillance, data mining, freedom to travel, medical and financial privacy, national ID cards, whistleblower protection, military commissions, and law enforcement conduct.

A sixteen-year veteran of federal law enforcement, German served as a special agent with the Federal Bureau of Investigation, where he specialized in domestic terrorism and covert operations. As an undercover agent, German twice infiltrated extremist groups using constitutionally sound law enforcement techniques. These operations successfully prevented terrorist attacks by winning criminal convictions against terrorists. German's final assignment with the FBI was as a counterterrorism instructor at the FBI National Academy. There, he taught courses on extremism in democratic societies and developed a graduate-level training program for state, local and international law enforcement officers.

German left the FBI in 2004 to make Congress and the public aware of continuing deficiencies in FBI counterterrorism operations. He began lecturing on counterterrorism and intelligence matters and joined the ACLU Washington Legislative Office staff in 2006. His commentary has appeared in the National Law Journal, Washington Post, San Francisco Chronicle and Miami Herald. German is the author of scholarly articles including "Squaring the Error," published by the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College and "Trying Enemy Combatants in Civilian Courts," published in the George Washington Law Review. His first book, Thinking Like a Terrorist: Insights of a Former FBI Undercover Agent, was published in 2007.

German currently serves as an adjunct professor for Law Enforcement and Terrorism at the National Defense University and is a Senior Fellow with GlobalSecurity.org. German graduated from the Northwestern University Law School, and graduated cum laude from Wake Forest University with a B.A. in Philosophy.

Robert Hutchings is Diplomat in Residence at Princeton University, where he has also served as Assistant Dean of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. During a public service leave from the university in 2003-05, he was Chairman of the U.S. National Intelligence Council in Washington, D.C.

His combined academic and diplomatic career has included service as Fellow and Director of International Studies at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Director for European Affairs with the National Security Council, and Special Adviser to the Secretary of State, with the rank of ambassador.

Ambassador Hutchings also served as deputy director of Radio Free Europe and on the faculty of the University of Virginia, and has held adjunct appointments at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. He is author of At the End of the American Century and American Diplomacy and the End of the Cold War, which was published in German as Als der Kalte Krieg zu Ende war.

While chairing the National Intelligence Council, he directed the year-long "NIC 2020" project resulting in a report called Mapping the Global Future, examining the forces that will shape world affairs out to the year 2020. His current research springs from that project and aims at developing a global policy agenda, based on a series of structured strategic dialogues over the past two years with leaders in China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, and a dozen other key countries around the world.

Hutchings is a director of the Atlantic Council of the United States and of the Foundation for a Civil Society and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the British-North America Committee. A recipient of the National Intelligence Medal and the U.S. State Department Superior Honor Award, he was also awarded the Order of Merit (with Commander's Cross) of the Republic of Poland for his contributions to Polish freedom. He is a graduate of the United States Naval Academy and received his Ph.D. from the University of Virginia.

Dr. Mia Mellissa Bloom is the author of Dying to Kill: The Allure of Suicide Terror (NY: Columbia University Press 2005 and 2007), an edited volume entitled Living Together After Ethnic Killing (with Roy Licklider) (London: Routledge 2006) on post civil war reconciliation, and articles on the 1990 "proxy bomb" campaign in Northern Ireland (Social Research, July 2008) co-authored with John Horgan. Bloom is currently completing a book on the deliberate use of rape during war tentatively entitled Gendercide: the Strategic Logic of Rape and War for Cornell University Press and Bombshell: Women and Terror for Penguin Press.

Bloom is an assistant professor in the School of International and Public Affairs at the University of Georgia in Athens and a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations. She has held research and teaching appointments at Princeton, Cornell, Harvard, and McGill Universities. She has a PhD in political science from Columbia University, a Masters in Arab Studies from Georgetown University and a Bachelors from McGill University in Russian and Middle East Studies and speaks nine languages. She appears regularly on CNN, Fox News, CSPAN, NBC Nightly News, and has been interviewed by Jim Lehrer, Ted Koppel, and Jesse Pearson for MTV.

Dr. James J.F. Forest is the Director of Terrorism Studies and an associate professor at the United States Military Academy, where he teaches courses on terrorism and counterterrorism, information warfare and foreign policy, and directs several research initiatives for the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. He has published eleven books on a variety of topics, including Countering Terrorism and Insurgency in the 21st Century: International Perspectives (Praeger, 2007), Weapons of Mass Destruction and Terrorism (McGraw-Hill, 2007), Teaching Terror: Strategic and Tactical Learning in the Terrorist World (Rowman & Littlefield, 2006), and The Making of a Terrorist: Recruitment, Training and Root Causes (Praeger, 2005), as well as articles in the Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Democracy and Security and the Journal of Political Science Education. Dr. Forest also serves as a guest lecturer for several government agencies in the U.S. and Europe, and maintains a top secret security clearance. He holds degrees from De Anza College, Georgetown University, Stanford University, and Boston College.

Robert A. Pape is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago specializing in international security affairs. His publications include Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism (Random House 2005); Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War (Cornell 1996), "Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work," International Security (1997), "The Determinants of International Moral Action," International Organization (1999); "The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism," American Political Science Review (2003); and "Soft Balancing against the United States," International Security (2005). His commentary on international security policy has appeared in The New York Times, Washington Post, New Republic, Boston Globe, Los Angeles Times, and Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, as well as on Nightline, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, and National Public Radio.

Before coming to Chicago in 1999, Pape taught international relations at Dartmouth College for five years and air power strategy for the USAF's School of Advanced Airpower Studies for three years. He received his Ph. D. from the University of Chicago in 1988 and graduated summa cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa from the University of Pittsburgh in 1982. His current work focuses on the causes of suicide terrorism and the politics of unipolarity.

Max Abrahms is a Social Science Predoctoral Fellow at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation, and Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at UCLA. His research focuses on terrorist motives, effectiveness, and counterterrorism strategy. He has published on these topics in International Security, Security Studies, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Terrorism and Political Violence, and Middle East Policy. Prior to coming to Stanford, Abrahms was a Research Associate at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; a Fellow at Tel Aviv University; a Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy; and a commissioned op-ed writer on Palestinian terrorism for the Los Angeles Times. He has appeared as a terrorism analyst on ABC News, Al-Arabiyya, Al-Hurra, Al-Jazeera, BBC, CBS, CNN, CNN Financial, Fox News, National Public Radio, and PBS.

Walter Reich is the Yitzhak Rabin Memorial Professor of International Affairs, Ethics and Human Behavior, and Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, at The George Washington University; a Senior Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center; and a former Director of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. Dr. Reich is also a Lecturer in Psychiatry at Yale University; Professor of Psychiatry at the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences; a Contributing Editor of The Wilson Quarterly; and was a founding member of the Council on Global Terrorism. Dr. Reich has written and lectured widely on the Holocaust and genocide, terrorism, human rights, national memory, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, psychiatry, medical ethics and national and international affairs. He is the author of A Stranger in My House: Jews and Arabs in the West Bank (Holt), a co-author of State of the Struggle: Report on the Battle against Global Terrorism (Brookings Institution Press), and the editor of Origins of Terrorism: Psychologies, Ideologies, Theologies, States of Mind (Johns Hopkins University Press and Woodrow Wilson Center Press).

Steve Coll is President & CEO of New America Foundation, and a staff writer at The New Yorker magazine. Previously he spent 20 years as a foreign correspondent and senior editor at The Washington Post, serving as the paper's managing editor from 1998 to 2004. He is author six books, including The Deal of the Century: The Break Up of AT&T (1986); The Taking of Getty Oil (1987); Eagle on the Street, based on the Pulitzer Prize-winning account of the SEC's battle with Wall Street (with David A. Vise, 1991); On the Grand Trunk Road: A Journey into South Asia (1994), Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan and Bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001 (2004); and The Bin Ladens: An Arabian Family in the American Century (2008).

Mr. Coll's professional awards include two Pulitzer Prizes. He won the first of these, for explanatory journalism, in 1990, for his series, with David A. Vise, about the SEC. His second was awarded in 2005, for his book, Ghost Wars, which also won the Council on Foreign Relations' Arthur Ross award; the Overseas Press Club award and the Lionel Gelber Prize for the best book published on international affairs during 2004. Other awards include the 1992 Livingston Award for outstanding foreign reporting; the 2000 Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Award for his coverage of the civil war in Sierra Leone; and a second Overseas Press Club Award for international magazine writing. Mr. Coll graduated Phi Beta Kappa, Cum Laude, from Occidental College in 1980 with a degree in English and history. He lives in Washington, D.C.

Dr. Andrew Mack is the Director of the Human Security Report Project and a Limited Term Professor at the School for International Studies, Simon Fraser University. Prior to establishing the Human Security Report Project, he was a Visiting Professor at the Program on Humanitarian Policy at Harvard University (2001). He spent two and a half years as the Director of Strategic Planning in the Executive Office of Secretary-General Kofi Annan at the United Nations from 1998 — 2001. Professor Mack previously held the Chair in International Relations at the Institute of Advanced Study at the Australian National University (1991-1998), was the Director of the ANU's Peace Research Centre (1985-91) and Senior Research Fellow in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre (1984-85).

Dr. Marc Sageman is an independent researcher on terrorism and is the founder and principal of Sageman Consulting LLC in Rockville, Maryland. Dr. Sageman is the "scholar in residence" at the NYPD in New York City and an Associate Professor at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, New York. He graduated from Harvard University in 1973, and earned an M.D. and a Ph.D. in political sociology from New York University. His books include Leaderless Jihad (2008); and Understanding Terror Networks (2004).

Audrey Kurth Cronin was Academic Director of Studies for the Changing Character of War programme from September 2005 until July 2007. She came to Oxford University from the U.S. National War College, National Defense University, and left Oxford in July 2007 to return to the National War College where she takes up a full professorship.

Professor Cronin has also worked at the Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, where she advised Members of Congress and their staffs on terrorism matters. Prior to that she was on the faculty of the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, where she created and taught a long-standing graduate course on political violence and terrorism that was featured in the New York Times shortly after 9/11. She has twenty years' teaching experience on matters relating to strategic thought and war, including faculty positions at the University of Virginia, the University of Maryland, and Columbia University.

While at Oxford, Professor Cronin completed How Terrorism Ends: Lessons from the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Organizations, supported by a grant from the U.S. Institute of Peace. She also published the lead article in the Summer 2006 issue of International Security, entitled "How al-Qaida Ends." In addition to the academic publications listed below, major studies for the U.S. Congress include "Al Qaeda after the Iraq Conflict" (2003), "Terrorists and Suicide Attacks" (2003), "Terrorist Motivations for Chemical and Biological Weapons Use" (2003), "Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations" (2004), and "Saudi Arabia and Terrorist Financing" (2004).

Colonel Randall Larsen, USAF (Ret), is the national security advisor to the Center for Biosecurity of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center.

He was one of the first witnesses to testify before the 9-11 Commission, and since 9-11 he has served as an expert witness to the Senate Armed Services, Senate Judiciary, House Government Reform, House Homeland Security, and House Budget Committees. In March 2005, he designed and ran a two-day workshop and table top exercise for the House of Representatives Committee on Homeland Security. He was a member of the 2003 Defense Science Board Study on Homeland Security, and he is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

He has designed and led numerous war games and executive-level table top exercises including: DARK WINTER (bioterrorism, 2001), SILENT VECTOR (critical infrastructure, 2002), CRIMSON SKY (agro-terrorism, 2002), CRIMSON WINTER (food security, 2003), TERMINAL RISK (environmental terrorism, 2003), ATLANTIC STORM (international public health, 2005).

After a half dozen years as an academic and researcher in the sciences, Milton Leitenberg began work in the field of arms control in the fall of 1966. In January 1968, he went to Sweden as the first American recruited to work at SIPRI, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. He then worked on research projects for the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Swedish Ministry of Defense while located at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, spending a total of 17 years working in Sweden. During this period, he also spent five years at the Center for International Studies at Cornell University and held two Visiting Professorships, at Cornell University and at the Paterson Graduate School of International Studies, Carleton University, in Ottawa, Canada. Since 1989, he has been at the Center for International and Security Studies, University of Maryland, currently as Senior Research Scholar.

In the years since 1966, Leitenberg has authored or edited ten books and written over 180 papers, monographs, and book chapters. These cover a wide range of subjects in the traditional areas of arms control — such as nuclear, biological, chemical and conventional weapons, military expenditure, arms transfer, defense industry, and weapons research and development — as well as actual wars and conflicts and foreign military intervention since the end of World War II. His recent research has focused on biological weapons.

Dr. Jim Walsh is an expert in international security and a Research Associate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dr. Walsh's research and writings focus on international security, and in particular, topics involving weapons of mass destruction and terrorism. Dr. Walsh has testified before the United States Senate on the issue of nuclear terrorism and chaired the Harvard University International Working Group on Radiological Terrorism. Among his current projects are two series of dialogues on nuclear issues, one with representatives from North Korea and one with leading figures in Iran. He has traveled to both countries and has testified before the Senate on Iran's nuclear program.

Dr. Walsh served as editor for the book series, Terrorism: Documents of International & Local Control and his writings have appeared in several scholarly journals including Political Science Quarterly, the Nonproliferation Review, International Studies Review, and Contemporary Security Policy. His most recent publications include "Iran's Nuclear Program: Motivations, Consequences, and Options" in Terrorist Attacks and Nuclear Proliferation: Strategies for Overlapping Dangers (Academy of Political Science, 2007), "The Nuclear Weapons Danger" in A Muslim-Christian Study and Action Guide to the Nuclear Weapons Danger (Islamic Society of North America and the Churches' Center for Theology and Public Policy, 2007), "Learning from Past Success: The NPT and the Future of Non-proliferation" for the Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission chaired by Hans Blix (2006). Dr. Walsh received his PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

James Andrew Lewis is a senior fellow at CSIS where he writes on technology, national security and the international economy. Before joining CSIS, he worked in the Federal government as a Foreign Service Officer and as a member of the Senior Executive Service. His assignments involved Asian regional security, military intervention and insurgency, conventional arms negotiations, technology transfer, foreign investment and the defense industry, sanctions, internet policy, and military space programs. Lewis received his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago. Lewis has authored more than forty publications on a range of topics since coming to CSIS, including: "Assessing the Risks of Cyber Terror and Cyber War," "Strengthening Law Enforcement Capabilities for Counter-Terrorism;" "Globalization and National Security, "The Limits of Arms Transfer Restraint," "China as a Military Space Competitor," "Foreign Investment and Sovereign Wealth," "Intellectual Property and Development," "Critical Infrastructure Protection and Cyber Terrorism: Mass Destruction or Mass Annoyance?" "Foreign Influence on Software: Risks and Recourse," and "Waiting for Sputnik: Basic Research and Strategic Competition."

Jeremy Shapiro is the research director of the Center of the United States and Europe (CUSE) at the Brookings Institution and a fellow in foreign policy studies. At CUSE, he is conducting a project on the role of Europe in the war in terrorism, the European experience with counterterrorism at home, and the lessons for the United States. He is the co-author, with Michael O'Hanlon of Protecting the Homeland 2006/7 (Brookings Press, 2006) and with Philip Gordon, of Allies at War: America, Europe, and the Crisis over Iraq (McGraw-Hill, 2004), an analysis of the transatlantic diplomacy over Iraq. He also edits CUSE's U.S.-Europe Analysis Series and serves as a resource for the Washington community and the media on issues related to Europe and U.S.-European relations.

Prior to Brookings, he worked as a policy analyst at RAND in Washington, DC from 1997 to 2002. Mr. Shapiro has also held positions at the National Defense University, at SAIC, and at the Oracle Corporation. He has B.A. in Computer Science from Harvard University, an M.A. in International Relations and International Economics from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and is a Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at MIT.

Bruce Schneier is an internationally renowned security technologist, referred to by The Economist as a "security guru." He is the author of eight books — including the best sellers Beyond Fear: Thinking Sensibly about Security in an Uncertain World, Secrets and Lies, and Applied Cryptography — as well as hundreds of articles and essays in national and international publications, and many more academic papers. His influential newsletter Crypto-Gram, and his blog Schneier on Security, are read by over 250,000 people. He is a frequent guest on television and radio, and is regularly quoted in the press on issues surrounding security and privacy. He has testified before Congress on multiple occasions, and has served on several government technical committees. Schneier is the Chief Security Technology Officer of BT.

Cindy Williams is a Principal Research Scientist of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Her work at MIT includes an examination of the processes by which the U.S. government plans for and allocates resources among the activities related to national security and international affairs and an examination of personnel policies in the armed forces of Western nations. Formerly she was an Assistant Director of the Congressional Budget Office, where she led the National Security Division in studies of budgetary and policy choices related to defense and international security. Dr. Williams has served as a director and in other capacities at the MITRE Corporation in Bedford, Massachusetts; as a member of the Senior Executive Service in the Directorate of Program Analysis of Evaluation of the Office of the Secretary of Defense at the Pentagon; and as a mathematician at RAND in Santa Monica, California. Her areas of specialization include U.S. national security policies and budgets, military personnel policy, and command and control of military forces.

Dr. Williams holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from the University of California, Irvine. She has published in the areas of command and control and the defense budget. She is the editor of Holding the Line: U.S. Defense Alternatives for the Early 21st Century (MIT Press 2001) and Filling the Ranks: Transforming the U.S. Military Personnel System (MIT Press 2004). She is co-editor, with Curtis Gilroy, of Service to Country: Personnel Policy and the Transformation of Western Militaries (MIT Press 2006).

Mr. Steven Simon is the Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Prior to joining the Council, he specialized in Middle Eastern affairs at the RAND Corporation. He came to RAND from London, where he was the deputy director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and Carol Deane senior fellow in U.S. security studies. Before moving to Britain in 1999, Mr. Simon served at the White House for over five years as director for global issues and senior director for transnational threats. He has published widely in leading foreign policy journals and newspapers and is a frequent commentator on radio and television. In addition to teaching at Georgetown University, he has been a university fellow at Brown University and Oxford University. Simon is the coauthor of several critically-acclaimed books including The Age of Sacred Terror, and The Next Attack, and he is the coeditor with Toby Dodge of Iraq at the Crossroads: State and Society in the Shadow of Regime Change.

James Carafano is a leading expert in defense and homeland security at The Heritage Foundation. An accomplished historian and teacher, Carafano was an Assistant Professor at the U.S. Military Academy in West Point, N.Y., and served as Director of Military Studies at the Army's Center of Military History. He also taught at Mount Saint Mary College in New York and served as a Fleet Professor at the U.S. Naval War College. He is a Visiting Professor at the National Defense University and Georgetown University.

Carafano is the coauthor of Winning the Long War: Lessons from the Cold War for Defeating Terrorism and Preserving Freedom. The authors argue that a successful strategy requires a balance of prudent military and security measures, continued economic growth, the zealous protection of civil liberties and winning the "war of ideas" against terrorist ideologies.

In addition, Carafano is the coauthor of the textbook, Homeland Security, a practical introduction to everyday life in the new era of terrorism, and he was the principal author of the budget analysis in the 2003 Independent Task Force Report, Emergency Responders: Drastically Underfunded, Dangerously Unprepared, published by the Council on Foreign Relations. He was also a contributing author to the National Academies Army Science and Technology for Homeland Security 2004 report and co-director of the task force report, DHS 2.0: Rethinking the Department of Homeland Security. His other works include: G.I. Ingenuity: Improvisation, Technology and Winning World War II (2006); Waltzing Into the Cold War (2002) by Texas A & M University; and After D-Day, a Military Book Club main selection (2000).

Carafano joined Heritage in 2003 as a Senior Research Fellow after serving as a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a Washington policy institute dedicated to defense issues. In 2006, Carafano became Assistant Director of Heritage's Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies.

Before becoming a policy expert, he served 25 years in the Army, rising to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel.

A graduate of West Point, Carafano also has a master's degree and a doctorate from Georgetown University and a master's degree in strategy from the U.S. Army War College.

Dr. Byman is a Senior Fellow with the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. He has served as a Professional Staff Member with the 9/11 Commission and with the Joint 9/11 Inquiry Staff of the House and Senate Intelligence Committees. Before joining the Inquiry Staff he was the Research Director of the Center for Middle East Public Policy at the RAND Corporation. Dr. Byman has also served as an analyst on the Middle East for the U.S. government. He is the author of The Five Front War: The Better Way to Fight Global Jihad (Wiley, 2007); Deadly Connections: States that Sponsor Terrorism (Cambridge, 2005); Keeping the Peace: Lasting Solutions to Ethnic Conflict (Johns Hopkins, 2002); and co-author of Things Fall Apart: Containing the Spillover from the Iraqi Civil War (Brookings, 2007) and The Dynamics of Coercion: American Foreign Policy and the Limits of Military Might (Cambridge, 2002). He has also written widely on a range of topics related to terrorism, international security, and the Middle East.

Dr. Pillar is Visiting Professor and Director of Studies of the Security Studies Program in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. He retired in 2005 from a 28-year career in the U.S. intelligence community, in which his last position was National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia. Earlier he served in a variety of analytical and managerial positions, including as chief of analytic units at the CIA covering portions of the Near East, the Persian Gulf, and South Asia. Dr. Pillar also served in the National Intelligence Council as one of the original members of its Analytic Group. He has been Executive Assistant to CIA's Deputy Director for Intelligence and Executive Assistant to Director of Central Intelligence William Webster. He has also headed the Assessments and Information Group of the DCI Counterterrorist Center, and from 1997 to 1999 was deputy chief of the center. He was a Federal Executive Fellow at the Brookings Institution in 1999-2000.

Dr. Pillar received an A.B. summa cum laude from Dartmouth College, a B.Phil. from Oxford University, and an M.A. and Ph.D. from Princeton University. He is a retired officer in the U.S. Army Reserve and served on active duty in 1971-1973, including a tour of duty in Vietnam. He is the author of Negotiating Peace: War Termination as a Bargaining Process and Terrorism and U.S. Foreign Policy.

Paul Slovic is a founder and President of Decision Research, studies human judgment, decision making, and risk analysis. He and his colleagues worldwide have developed methods to describe risk perceptions and measure their impacts on individuals, industry, and society. He publishes extensively and serves as a consultant to industry and government. Dr. Slovic is a past President of the Society for Risk Analysis and in 1991 received its Distinguished Contribution Award. In 1993 he received the Distinguished Scientific Contribution Award from the American Psychological Association. In 1995 he received the Outstanding Contribution to Science Award from the Oregon Academy of Science. He has received honorary doctorates from the Stockholm School of Economics (1996) and the University of East Anglia (2005).

Matt A. Mayer is a Visiting Fellow with The Heritage Foundation, President of Provisum Strategies LLC, and an Adjunct Professor at The Ohio State University. He has served as the policy and operation counselor to the Deputy Secretary and as the head of domestic terrorism preparedness in the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

Edward A. Flynn was appointed as the eighteenth police chief in the 153 year history of the Milwaukee Police Department in January 2008. He commands an agency of 2,000 sworn officers and 500 civilians serving a city of over 600,000 residents.

He was police commissioner in Springfield, Massachusetts from 2006 to 2008. Prior to that, Flynn served as Secretary of Public Safety under Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney from January 2003 until taking command in Springfield. As Secretary, he was responsible for the management of a variety of public safety agencies, boards, and commissions including the Massachusetts State Police, the Department of Correction, the National Guard, the Department of Fire Services, the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner, the Parole Board, and the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency. He also served as the chief adviser to the Governor on homeland security.

Prior to his appointment as Secretary of Public Safety, he served for five years as the Chief of Police in Arlington, Virginia. His began his career in the Jersey City Police Department, where he was promoted through the ranks of officer, sergeant, lieutenant, captain and inspector. He served as the Chief of Police in Braintree and subsequently Chelsea, Massachusetts.

He holds a B.A. in history from LaSalle University in Philadelphia, a Masters degree in Criminal Justice from John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York and completed all course work in the Ph.D. program in criminal justice from the City University in New York. Chief Flynn is a graduate of the FBI National Academy, the National Executive Institute and was a National Institute of Justice Pickett Fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.

Captain Ross is currently serving as the Chief, Risk Sciences Branch in the Office of Special Programs in the Department of Homeland Security's Science and Technology Directorate. On active service in the Coast Guard from 1973 to 2003, Captain Ross spent the majority of his career in the Marine Safety and Environmental Protection programs. In his last operational assignment he was Captain of the Port and Officer in Charge of Marine Inspection in San Juan where he was responsible for commercial shipping safety, port safety and security and marine environmental protection activities in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

In his current position, Captain Ross is conducting or overseeing studies intended to shed light on "next threat" and "threat after next" issues in Homeland Security, the nexus between terrorism and both offensive and defensive technologies and on analytic methodologies, including risk assessment, to support more effective decision-making in the national Homeland Security enterprise.

Captain Ross holds a BS in Ocean Engineering from the USCG Academy and an MS in Systems Management from the Florida Institute of Technology. He was also a fellow in the MIT Center for International Studies Seminar XXI program. While in the Coast Guard he was awarded the Legion of Merit, the Meritorious Service Medal, the CG and Navy Commendation Medals and the CG and Army Achievement Medals.

William Burns is currently a research scientist at Decision Research, a consultant at the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), and he teaches part-time in the College of Business at Cal State University San Marcos. His early work focused on the public's response to natural disasters and technological accidents while on the faculty at the University of Iowa and University of California Davis. This research was supported in part by grants from the National Science Foundation and has been published in academic journals such as Management Science and Risk Analysis.

Influenced by the events of September 11th and hurricane Katrina he has resumed his academic research and now is focusing on modeling public response and the subsequent economic impacts of disasters (special emphasis on terrorism) on urban areas. A paper (with Paul Slovic) "Predicting Public Response to a Terrorist Strike" was awarded 'Best Paper' at the 2005 Society for Risk Analysis Conference. Investigations over the near future seek to develop a new generation of research focused on a dynamic rather than a static portrayal of risk perception, risk-related behavior, and policy preference. In a similar fashion, this program of research also explores new economic models that may be linked to behavioral measures of risk in order to accurately predict economic impacts.

Shaun Waterman is the Homeland and National Security Editor for United Press International. He has covered the Department of Homeland Security since the agency was stood up in 2003. His reporting on the Sept. 11 Commission and the tortuous process by which some of its recommendations finally became law in the 2004 Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act earned him a "Dateline Washington" award from the Society of Professional Journalists. These days he writes mainly about emerging threats to U.S. and global security: trans-national terrorism; pandemic disease; weapons proliferation and other asymmetric dangers. His stories appear two to three times a week on the UPI Web site and in The Washington Times.

Prior to joining UPI, Waterman worked as a senior producer for the British Broadcasting Corporation's flagship evening radio news program, The World Tonight. Waterman joined the BBC in 1992 as a news trainee, and worked in local TV and radio news for three years before joining TWT team. In 1999, he was appointed to run the BBC's American radio news desk in Washington, providing round-the-clock news from all over both American continents for the corporation's six radio networks.

Before joining the BBC, Waterman worked as a freelance journalist and parliamentary aide, writing for numerous publications including the investigative magazine Private Eye and doing press and research work for a number of members of the British Parliament. Waterman, who is British, has a master's degree in social and political sciences from King's College, Cambridge.

Jeff Eller is president and CEO of Public Strategies. Eller, who joined the firm in 1994 and previously led the company's campaigns group, was promoted to president and CEO in 2006. Eller coordinated the Public Strategies team that handled the communications and public affairs counseling for a private equity buyout of a major energy company. Other notable accomplishments have included orchestrating the media, lobbying, and communications strategies for several leading corporations in high-profile crisis situations. He also has led multiple successful referendum campaigns for U.S. professional sports teams.

Featured in The New Yorker, The Wall Street Journal, and Forbes ASAP, throughout his career, Eller has used emerging technologies to successfully open new public-policy communications frontiers. In fact, according to Forbes ASAP, "Eller may, in fact, be the most linked, multiplexed, plugged-in human being on the planet — or at least in politics."

Before joining Public Strategies, Eller served in the Clinton White House as deputy assistant to the president and director of media affairs. At the White House, Eller oversaw all regional and specialty media relations, as well as radio and television services. Daily, he and his staff staged presidential news conferences, administration interviews and other major media events, while constantly transmitting media briefings and documents into cyberspace via computer networks. Eller began working for then-Governor Clinton in December 1991, first as Florida state campaign director, then as political communications director for the national campaign. He has been involved in numerous congressional and Senate campaigns, and worked for two members of Congress. He is a former award-winning television and radio reporter.

Ben Goddard, a founding partner, is widely regarded as one of the most creative talents in the business, particularly in issue advocacy and ballot measure campaigns. Ben oversees all aspects of Goddard Claussen's issue advertising, provides strategic counsel and planning services, and directs message development for clients of the firm.

Ben has received dozens of awards for creativity, including a television Emmy, and his commercials are part of the Smithsonian permanent collection. He is generally credited with creating the genre of national issue advocacy advertising and the first political advertising campaign in the former Soviet Union. He also served as a media consultant to candidates for state and national office including Jimmy Carter, Gary Hart, Mo Udall and Bruce Babbitt among others.

Ben is the producer of two award-winning feature films. He frequently lectures at Duke University and has been a guest lecturer at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He writes a weekly column for The Hill, one of the most influential Capitol Hill newspapers. Ben also serves as President of the International Association of Political Consultants.

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