The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has two charts showing what health care regulation looks like now…

…and what it would look like under the House Democrats’ health care plan:

This is too good. Directly from the ABC News blog post, “CBO Sees No Federal Cost Savings in Dem Health Plans:”

Here’s a blow to President Obama and Democrats pressing health care reform.

One of the main arguments made by the President and others for investing in health reform now is that it will save the federal government money in the long run by containing costs.

Turns out that may not be the case, according to Doug Elmendorf, director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

Answering questions from Democrat Kent Conrad of North Dakota at a hearing of the Senate Budget Committee today, Elmendorf said CBO does not see health care cost savings in either of the partisan Democratic bills currently in Congress.

Conrad: Dr. Elmendorf, I am going to really put you on the spot because we are in the middle of this health care debate, but it is critically important that we get this right. Everyone has said, virtually everyone, that bending the cost curve over time is critically important and one of the key goals of this entire effort. From what you have seen from the products of the committees that have reported, do you see a successful effort being mounted to bend the long-term cost curve?

Elmendorf: No, Mr. Chairman. In the legislation that has been reported we do not see the sort of fundamental changes that would be necessary to reduce the trajectory of federal health spending by a significant amount. And on the contrary, the legislation significantly expands the federal responsibility for health care costs.

Formatting in original.

From my oped in today’s Investor’s Business Daily:

As it turns out, “universal coverage” may not be so inevitable after all. Much to the chagrin (and apparent surprise) of President Obama and congressional Democrats, squabbling has erupted in earnest over who will spring for the exorbitant cost.

Fortunately, Obama has an exit strategy: “If there is a way of getting this done where we’re driving down costs and people are getting health insurance at an affordable rate, and have choice of doctor, have flexibility in terms of their plans, and we could do that entirely through the market, I’d be happy to do it that way.”

Well, there is a way: Let individuals control their health care dollars, and free them to choose from a wide variety of health plans and providers. If Congress takes those steps, innovation and market competition will make health care better, more affordable, and more secure.

Well, kinda.

In this oped for Kaiser Health News, I explain how the deals that the Obama administration has struck with (some) drug companies, Wal-Mart, and (some) hospitals are “the same old Washington game of bribes, backroom deals, profiteering and protectionism — and a harbinger of what health care will look like if the president’s reforms succeed.”

I was on the Glenn Beck Show yesterday…

…talking about this rendering of the House Democrats’ 1,018-page health care plan:

That’s you all the way on the left, and your doctor/​hospital all the way on the right.

What could be simpler?

Reading the New York Times’s coverage of a Senate committee’s recent vote on health care legislation, I was struck by the following statement from Sen. Dodd:

If you don’t have health insurance, this bill is for you,” said Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut, who presided over more than three weeks of grueling committee sessions. “It stops insurance companies from denying coverage based on pre-existing conditions. It guarantees that you’ll be able to find an insurance plan that works for you, including a public health insurance option if you want it.”

The bill would also help people who have insurance, Mr. Dodd said, because “it eliminates annual and lifetime caps on coverage and ensures that your out-of-pocket costs will never exceed your ability to pay.”

A basic understanding of economics should tell you this can’t be right. The federal government and the insurance industry have limited resources; the demand for health care is potentially unlimited. Therefore, no conceivable legislation can ensure that the demand for health care will never exceed the resources available to pay for it. All legislation can do is to shift who controls the allocation of scarce health care dollars—in this case away from patients and insurance companies and toward the federal government. Reasonable people can disagree about whether that’s an improvement, but it’s disingenuous to pretend that any legislation could “eliminate” caps on coverage or “ensure” that health care wants will never outstrip our ability to pay for them.

As Mike Tanner has written, the health care bill means a big tax hike — indeed, a lot of tax hikes. It also means a reversal of one of President Ronald Reagan’s great achievements, bringing down the top marginal income tax rate. 

Reports the Washington Times:

Small-business owners are warning that the economy would suffer under a health care bill proposed by House Democrats, which would drive tax rates for high-income taxpayers to levels not seen since before President Reagan’s tax reform of 1986.

The top federal income tax rate, which Mr. Reagan and a bipartisan Congress lowered from 50 percent to 28 percent, would reach 45 percent in 2011 if Congress and President Obama enact the surtaxes that are part of the health care reform plan that House Democrats announced Tuesday.

Small-business owners, who would take a direct hit from the surtaxes, expressed dismay over the proposal, saying it would force them to curtail hiring and reduce wages amid the worst recession in a generation.

“If they institute a 5 percent surtax on income, it will have a severe impact on small businesses that are already hurting,” said Michael Fredrich, whose Wisconsin company, MCM Composites, molds plastic parts.

“We run maybe three days a week, sometimes four days a week, sometimes zero days,” he said. “I can tell you that at some point, people … running a small business are just going to say, ‘To hell with it.’ ”

Individuals tend to focus on their tax burden. After all, our overall tax bill reflects the amount of money we lose as legislators speed about the country allegedly “serving” us while promoting their own political ends. 

Marginal tax rates more directly affect decisions on saving, investment, business formation, work effort, job creation, and more. Even politicians not enamored of the “rich,” whatever that term means, should recognize that we all benefit from an economic system which encourages entrepreneurship.

Proponents of big tax hikes might want to recall Aesop’s Fable, The Goose that Laid the Golden Eggs. Wreck the economy, and the health care system will crash too.