Thoughts on U.S.-Russia Relations from the National Security Strategy

Like most Americans, I did not receive an advance copy of President Trump’s National Security Strategy. I saw it when it was released by the White House, a few hours before the president’s speech. I wanted to actually read it, or, failing that, to find certain terms, and go back and read the entire document after the president’s speech.

News stories are stressing that great power competition is back. The text of the NSS provides considerable support for that conclusion: Russia appears 15 times; China is mentioned 23 times.

I was most interested in what the president said about Russia in his speech, and how, if at all, that differed from the text of the strategy issued under his name. Before Donald Trump’s election, there was a reasonable argument to be made that the United States should improve its relationship with Russia. During the course of the 2016 election campaign, Trump often claimed that there were areas where the two countries could and should work together. In his speech today, he called attention to information provided to the Russians that allegedly helped thwart a terror attack that, the president said, might have killed thousands.

But hope for improved U.S.-Russia relations has been set back by the credible evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 election. President Trump reportedly, and understandably, hates this story and wants it to go away, as it appears to undermine the legitimacy of his election. But the story has hamstrung how the president talks about Russia, and how his administration has handled U.S.-Russia relations. It has made any actual rapprochement with Russia essentially unthinkable.

The NSS reflects that reality – not candidate Donald Trump’s aspirations.

For example:

Russia aims to weaken U.S. influence in the world and divide us from our allies and partners. Russia views the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and European Union (EU) as threats. Russia is investing in new military capabilities, including nuclear systems that remain the most significant existential threat to the United States, and in destabilizing cyber capabilities. ­Through modernized forms of subversive tactics, Russia interferes in the domestic political affairs of countries around the world. The combination of Russian ambition and growing military capabilities creates an unstable frontier in Eurasia, where the risk of conflict due to Russian miscalculation is growing. (pp. 25-26)

[...]

Although the menace of Soviet communism is gone, new threats test our will. Russia is using subversive measures to weaken the credibility of America’s commitment to Europe, undermine transatlantic unity, and weaken European institutions and governments. With its invasions of Georgia and Ukraine, Russia demonstrated its willingness to violate the sovereignty of states in the region. Russia continues to intimidate its neighbors with threatening behavior, such as nuclear posturing and the forward deployment of offensive capabilities. (p. 47)

I also was curious to see how the NSS handled the specific question of Russian interference in politics, generally, and its use of social media, in particular. Does the document, in any way, give credence to the argument that there is something to this story, and that it shouldn’t just be swept under the rug?

Short answer: yes.

Russia uses information operations as part of its offensive cyber efforts to influence public opinion across the globe. Its influence campaigns blend covert intelligence operations and false online personas with state-funded media, third-party intermediaries, and paid social media users or “trolls.” (p. 35)

The NSS claims that the way to combat such influence operations is through a better informed public.

A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation. (p. 14)

I would like to believe that the White House actually believes what the document says. Then again, President Trump has engaged in a relentless battle against the U.S. media, at times seeming to question the value of free speech and free press.

Meanwhile, the Russians aren’t the only ones spreading blatantly false stories that undermine Americans’ confidence. There is no evidence, for example, that the Russians were behind the Maryland man who claimed to have discovered “'Tens of thousands' of fraudulent Clinton votes in [an] Ohio warehouse.” I am not aware of Russians alleging that Hillary Clinton and John Podesta were running a child sex operation in the basement of a Northwest DC pizzeria, but members of the Trump campaign regularly promoted the views of those who did; Michael Flynn Jr had a direct hand in spreading the story. His father, retired Gen. Michael Flynn, had a history of promoting baseless conspiracy theories, and yet Donald Trump chose him to be his National Security Adviser. The president himself recently spread anti-Muslim messages from a fringe group in the United Kingdom, prompting a public rebuke from British Prime Minister Theresa May. His struggles with basic facts are legendary (in a bad way).

Such behavior doesn’t give me much confidence that the president is as committed to building a resilient country that values individual liberty and individual dignity as his NSS claims. For starters, the president could consult the source of dubious stories before hitting the RT button.