Writing for the New Republic, Alvaro Vargas Llosa asks the fundamental question of whether the Federal Reserve has been a net plus or a net minus for the American economy. Looking at the Fed’s track record, which includes disasters like the Great Depression and serious mistakes like the more recent high‐tech and housing bubbles, Llosa astutely wonders whether money is too important to be left in the control of government:
Some of the country’s greatest economists, including Nobel Prize winners, have been saying for years that the Federal Reserve has probably caused more problems than it has solved since its creation in 1913. Its role in the last century’s boom and bust cycles is a matter of record; it looks as though it played a similar role in the current housing market crisis too. While the creation of the Federal Reserve was essentially a response to a series of bank runs, those crises were mild compared to the ones that were to follow. … All in all, financial instability has been far greater since the creation of the Federal Reserve. What did the Great Depression teach us? Essentially that even with the best of intentions, it is impossible for the authorities to manage the supply of money in accordance with the exact needs of the economy. A country’s economy is the sum of millions of people making decisions that no single individual is in a position to anticipate. … The current housing market and debt market crises are in good part the children of the Federal Reserve. By cutting rates 13 times between 2001 and 2003, and then keeping them very low for years, monetary policy contributed to the housing bubble. …once again, the Fed has turned out to be a factor of financial instability.