April 7, 2011 5:14PM

Predicting the Supreme Court

Josh Blackman, my sometimes co‐​author, who is the president of the Harlan Institute (with which I too am associated) and czar — his title, not mine — of Fan​ta​sySCO​TUS​.net, has co‐​authored a fascinating article that analyzes an information market he created to predict Supreme Court cases.


During the October 2009 Supreme Court term (last year), the 5,000 members of Fan​ta​sySCO​TUS​.net made over 11,000 predictions for the 81 cases decided. Based on this data, FantasySCOTUS accurately predicted a majority of the cases and the top‐​ranked experts predicted over 75% of the cases correctly. FantasySCOTUS even has a Prediction Tracker to provide real‐​time predictions as to how the Supreme Court will decide.


Josh’s article is an absolute must‐​read for anyone who follows the Court closely and tries to figure out what “The Nine” will do. While I myself haven’t had the time to participate in FantasySCOTUS, perhaps I should go there every now and again to be better able to answer (the very common) media questions of how cases turn out.