Despite the noise that will accompany today’s defense budget release, a few essential facts should be kept in mind. Pentagon spending will remain well above the post‐Cold War norm. It has not been slashed, and it will not be, not even in the unlikely event that sequestration takes effect (for more on this, see Ben Friedman’s post this morning ). The military is not in danger of declining to second‐class status. Indeed, if we took account of our still prodigious advantages over any conceivable combination of rivals, we could spend considerably less, and continue to enjoy a margin of security and safety that our ancestors would have envied.
The key areas that will face cuts include active‐duty ground troops and possibly nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, tough decisions on major weapons programs—such as the F-35—have been kicked down the road. The looming military compensation crisis has not been resolved. And while another round of Base Realignment and Closure could begin, it is not clear that the administration is willing to use the political capital necessary to garner support in Congress.
In the end, this budget will largely confirm what we’ve learned about the Obama administration’s strategic direction and priorities since early last month. The direction is the same, it avoided hard choices, and total spending will decline only slightly in real terms.
The new wrinkle is the context provided by the non‐defense portions of the budget. While the budget reduces projected military spending by $259 billion over the next five years, the administration wants to spend an additional $1 trillion elsewhere in discretionary spending. It seems the White House is intent on picking a fight with Republican hawks in Congress who are determined to fend off reductions in military spending. These hawks are sure to fix on the administration’s request for additional domestic spending as proof that the Pentagon’s budget need not be cut at all, and could even be expanded.
The administration deserves points for bowing to reality in a few key areas. For example, terrorism remains at the top of its list of concerns, but the country will fight this scourge through targeted operations, not open‐ended nation‐building missions. This shift allows for responsible reductions in the active‐duty Army and Marine Corps, which will fall back to around 2005 levels. This is good news for the troops and their families who have suffered during a decade of unnecessary and counterproductive wars, and for taxpayers who have grown understandably tired of paying for such things.
The administration has signaled that additional savings could be realized in the nuclear weapons budget, pending completion of a review of the nation’s overall nuclear posture. Although Pentagon leaders profess their commitment to the Cold war‐era nuclear triad—land-based ballistic missiles, manned bombers, and submarine‐launched missiles—there is widespread speculation that one of the legs of the stool might finally be sawed off. Not content to wait and see, Congressman Ed Markey (D-MA) introduced legislation last week that could generate an additional $100 billion in savings for taxpayers over the next ten years by postponing development of several new nuclear weapons delivery platforms, including a new bomber, and a new ballistic missile submarine.
Significant changes to a few additional big‐ticket items in the military’s budget have been kicked down the road, but could eventually materialize into savings for taxpayers—if some members of Congress are willing to take a tough stand now.
Military compensation: Excluding the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, personnel costs within the Pentagon’s base budget rose by nearly 90 percent over the past decade, about 30 percent above the rate of inflation. During this period, the number of military personnel increased by just three percent. The administration opted for the politically safe course of containing cost growth in the personnel sector by cutting the size of the active‐duty force. Compensation costs will continue to rise, although at a slower rate than previously projected. More can and should be done, else these expenses consume the rest of the military’s budget. The men and women who serve in the military enjoy overwhelming respect from the general public, and members of Congress are understandably loathe to tinker with their compensation. Still, structural reform of military pay and benefits is long overdue. These changes could be structured to have little or no impact on current active‐duty personnel, but could be instituted for new recruits.
Base realignment and closure, beginning overseas: Participants in an online budget exercise at the New York Times ranked cutting the overseas troop presence as their top priority (85 percent). These findings are consistent with other polls showing that Americans have long grown tired of paying to defend other countries that can and should defend themselves. Last week, Rep. Mike Coffman (R-CO) called on Secretary Panetta to make much deeper cuts, especially in Europe, than are currently on offer. It is likely that other members will fall in behind Coffman’s lead. If they do, expect to see a push for base closures overseas before additional bases are shuttered in the States.
Troubled aircraft and shipbuilding programs: The administration is moving ahead with plans for another supercarrier, and more littoral combat ships. It has delayed purchases of some F-35 fighter aircraft, but remains committed to all three variants of the plane (the Air Force’s F-35A, the Marine Corps’ F-35B, and the Navy’s F-35C). Congress should revisit the strategic rationale for all three of these programs, and members should pay particular attention to the soaring costs. There are realistic alternatives, if only members are willing to challenge the entrenched interests who stand to benefit from the status quo.
Live Now
Email Signup
Sign up to have blog posts delivered straight to your inbox!
Topics
Archives
- April 2021
- March 2021
- February 2021
- January 2021
- December 2020
- November 2020
- October 2020
- September 2020
- August 2020
- July 2020
- June 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- March 2020
- February 2020
- January 2020
- December 2019
- November 2019
- October 2019
- September 2019
- August 2019
- July 2019
- June 2019
- May 2019
- April 2019
- March 2019
- February 2019
- January 2019
- December 2018
- November 2018
- October 2018
- September 2018
- August 2018
- July 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- June 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- December 2014
- November 2014
- October 2014
- September 2014
- August 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- March 2014
- February 2014
- January 2014
- December 2013
- November 2013
- October 2013
- September 2013
- August 2013
- July 2013
- June 2013
- May 2013
- April 2013
- March 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- December 2012
- November 2012
- October 2012
- September 2012
- August 2012
- July 2012
- June 2012
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- Show More