Discussions about global warming and hurricanes obscure the human tragedies unfolding before our eyes. With climate science being as politicized as it is, we’ve received quite a lot of inquiries as to whether those rushing to blame this on human emissions are onto something, and it’s natural to wonder what’s going on when the news cycle is dominated by storms. The truth of the matter is: we don’t yet have the data to know.
On August 30, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory said:
It is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity.
This update cites research showing a “2 to 11%” increase in hurricane intensity by the end of this century. Given the enormous year-to-year variability in storms, the highest figure would take nearly fifty years to emerge from the noise in the data, and the lowest one—probably over a century.
As we said at the outset, this subject is better treated in a comprehensive fashion after the tragedies of today start to heal. For those of you who are thirsting for answers, I strongly recommend following my colleague here at Cato’s Center for the Study of Science, Ryan Maue, on Twitter. Ryan was one of the first to predict the extent of Harvey’s rainfall; you’ve likely seen his images atop the Drudge Report or journalists citing his work. In fact, the New York Times noted him in their article How to Follow Irma—and we agree.