The new Brazilian government of President Dilma Rousseff has announced spending cuts of 50 billion reais (approximately $30 billion) this year. This amounts to approximately 1.3% of the country’s estimated GDP for 2011. Despite good intentions, that is still a very timid effort in curbing the size of government in Brazil: Total government spending (including state and local levels) runs at almost 40% of GDP.
Perhaps the timidity of the proposal is explained by the fact that curbing the size of government is not the motivation for the spending cuts. Nor is it to avoid a looming fiscal crisis. Brazil’s estimated budget deficit for 2010 was 2.3% of GDP; not good, but still a far cry from the fiscal woes of Europe or the U.S.
Dilma’s reason for cutting spending lies in the helplessness of Brazil’s Central Bank in containing the rise of the real without harming the economy. The real has appreciated against the dollar by 38% in the last two years (thanks in large part to Ben Bernanke’s policies at the Fed). Efforts to contain this appreciation by intervening in the foreign exchange market and building up reserves led to a rise in inflation, which closed at 5.9% last year. The Central Bank has raised interest rates in order to curb inflation, but at 11.25% they are already too high and constitute a heavy burden on Brazil’s productive sector. Moreover, high interest rates are a magnet for foreign money seeking high returns, which drives up the value of the real even further.
Cutting government spending wouldn’t seem like the favored policy alternative of a left-wing technocrat such as Dilma Rousseff. However, it is the best way to bring down interest rates and control inflation under the present circumstances. It remains to be seen if the cuts do the trick, but they are certainly a positive sign from Brazil’s new president.