Unfortunately there was no upset in yesterday’s presidential election in Venezuela. Hugo Chávez handily won another six‐year term with 54% of the vote. Despite running an inspiring campaign that at some point seemed to threaten Chávez’s rule, Henrique Capriles came up short with 44%. The vote was clean, even though the election wouldn’t be considered fair in any mature democracy.
What happened? It seems clear that Chávez was able to mobilize his people to the polls. Despite the mismanagement of the economy, the spike in crime, the crumbling infrastructure and widespread corruption, many Venezuelans still like Chávez. And he made sure to buy their love this year by increasing public spending in the last 12 months by 30% in real terms. Others might not like him, but still feel compelled to vote for him. Over 8 million Venezuelans receive some kind of permanent income or handout from the government. The regime wasn’t subtle letting them know that those goodies would be gone if they voted for Capriles. The Economist reported on the intimidation faced by an important segment of these voters:
Some public employees—whose ranks have more than doubled under Mr Chávez to over 2m—have been obliged to fill out forms saying exactly where they will be voting. Like the election ballots, these forms require a signature and a thumbprint: the implication that the government will monitor how they vote does not need to be spelled out.
This is certainly a heartbreaking defeat for the opposition. There is no doubt that Chávez will continue to lead Venezuela down the authoritarian path. However, this election has created a credible opposition leader who, unlike opposition candidates in the past, will have a prominent voice in national politics, especially as the economic and social conditions deteriorate markedly as they are sure to do. If Chávez really is terminally ill with cancer, as is very likely, then the stature of Capriles will continue to grow as the next leader of Venezuela.