The Kyoto agreement–if fully complied with–would likely reduce the gross domestic product of the United States by 2.3 percent per year. However, according to a climate model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research recently featured in Science, the Kyoto emission‐control commitments would reduce mean planetary warming by a mere 0.19 degree Celsius over the next 50 years. If the costs of preventing additional warming were to remain constant, the Kyoto Protocol would cost a remarkable 12 percent of GDP per degree of warming prevented annually over a 50‐year period.
The Kyoto Protocol will have no discernible effect on global climate–in fact, it is doubtful that the current network of surface thermometers could distinguish a change on the order of .19 degree from normal year‐to‐year variations. The Kyoto Protocol will result in no demonstrable climate change but easily demonstrable economic damage.