The Supreme Court may force the U.S. to refund nearly half of the $70 billion in tariffs collected under Trump — a move Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admitted would be “terrible for the Treasury.” But as Cato Institute’s Vice President of General Economics, Scott Lincicome points out:
“First of all, the potential hit to federal revenues shouldn’t be oversold. It’s estimated that the United States has collected only around $70 billion in IEEPA tariffs thus far, while total federal outlays (spending) were nine times that amount in July alone.”
He adds “Furthermore, experts from across the political spectrum have long cautioned against relying on IEEPA tariff revenues, because the law was so risky. In fact, I warned of this very thing in a May 2025 Washington Post op-ed.“
Finally, Lincicome says “if the tariffs are found to be illegal, then the cost and potential difficulty of refunding them is immaterial. No one — not even Uncle Sam — gets to keep money he stole because he already spent it.”
To reach Lincicome about this topic, or other trade related topics, please feel free to contact Emily Salamon at esalamon@cato.org
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