This week, Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, was questioned following earlier evidence that Angela McLean, now the UK’s chief scientist, had called him “Dr Death” for prioritising the economy over saving lives. Under interrogation, Sunak at one point cited a controversial June 2020 study from Imperial and Manchester academics suggesting that the first lockdown’s costs may have outweighed the value of deaths avoided. His inquisitor, Hugo Keith KC, gave the comment short-shrift, stating “I don’t want to get into Quality Life Assurance models [sic].”
This dismissal of Sunak’s reference to quality-adjusted life years (QALY) analysis — a cornerstone in public health for gauging the cost-effectiveness of interventions — was striking. Here was the former chancellor alluding publicly, for the first time, that even the first lockdown may have been a mistake. Keith’s failure to follow up directly hardly quells fears that the inquiry isn’t much interested in evaluating the full costs and benefits of lockdowns, which, by Sunak’s own admission, the Treasury itself never modelled comprehensively.
Sunak was correct in saying that doing such an analysis, particularly early on, was difficult. The government would have had to model how far the public would have voluntarily locked down anyway to avoid waves of the virus, the inevitable economic downturns this brought, and the uncertain “impacts that would be felt down line” from lost schooling and restricted socialisation. Estimates would have depended on assumptions about future vaccine availability and so whether temporary shutdowns saved lives or simply postponed Covid-19 fatalities. Putting a money value on human lives saved is controversial at the best of times, even if economists like to do it.