Given businesses’ and workers’ differing needs, the productivity impact of simply mandating hybrid work is unclear. An IGM Forum panel of economists run by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business found 27 per cent agreed that working from home for two days per week would make workers more productive, but 56 per cent were uncertain and 12 per cent disagreed. This is no surprise. The pandemic enforced remote work, with kids off school, workers unfamiliar with technologies and disruptions through illness. It was not a good experiment for judging productivity effects, leaving us dependent on insights from less reliable surveys.
For all the benefits of avoiding commutes or being able to concentrate better, hybrid work brings co-ordination problems in getting teams into the office on the same day and more difficulties in onboarding fresh, young employees. There are longer-term challenges with employee relationships and collaboration. Surveys show workers favour Zooming for small groups of two to four people, but in-person meetings for ten or more. A recent Nature study into videoconferencing found that web calls worked OK for groups making decisions from established options but worse than in-person for new idea generation.
This uncertainty makes it foolish to rush headlong into enshrining new rights or simply demanding people return to old arrangements. The work of Nicholas Bloom, the economist, suggests many firms had better-than-expected experiences during Covid and poured money into technologies to support remote productivity. We should let these experiments play out. If they work, firms will profit and best practice will spread; if they fail, competition will eradicate them.
Yes, more people relocating their workplaces to home will have other economic consequences. A Decision Maker Panel survey of 3,000 UK businesses late last year found that companies expected to increase employee training and IT investment but to cut back on land and buildings. Why Conservatives reflexively oppose these changes or disruption to the location of service industries is baffling. Their whole schtick, remember, is about how the spatial layout of British economic activity is unjust, necessitating “levelling up”.
Sadly, there is no room for nuance in this debate. Labour’s Keir Starmer generalises that “people work very well and hard from home”. Johnson retorts that people are “more productive, more energetic, more full of ideas when they are surrounded by other people”. Both can be right in different circumstances, which is, of course, a virtue of the sort of pluralism markets provide. The government can rightfully have strong views on how best to manage its own employees in the civil service. When it comes to the private sector, it should be a conscientious objector to this culture war battle.