Libertarian-leaning economists have had mixed reactions to the Federal Trade Commission’s recent ban on non-compete agreements, which will be challenged in the courts.

To refresh: non-competes are clauses in employment contracts that stipulate an employee cannot work for a competitor or another franchisee within a company for a certain period of time after leaving their job.

Alex Tabarrok argues that non-competes increase affected workers’ wages, rather than reducing them (as the FTC claims), because there is a lower supply of available workers willing to tolerate such an imposition on their future prospects. Yet he is still sympathetic to the experiment of banning non-competes because of the possible spillover benefits to the broader economy. Tabarrok believes removing non-competes will lead to more worker mobility between jobs, increasing cross-pollination of ideas between companies, thus potentially enhancing innovation. He thinks this effect is an external benefit any individual firm won’t sufficiently consider in setting their own employment contracts.

Other law and economics scholars, such as Geoffrey Manne, oppose the ban. Non-competes are voluntary agreements between employers and employees, and so should generally be mutually beneficial. And there are clearly many scenarios under which non-competes can provide firms with the confidence to train new workers, share competition-sensitive information with staff, and take a chance on hiring “risky” personnel with a tendency to jump ship. At the very least, if we are to “experiment” with banning such clauses, says Manne, it should be at the state level, rather than a federal mandate. There are evidently a lot of complex trade-offs, some of which might only become clear after this Chesterton Fence has been torn down.

The most common position among market-sympathetic economists, however, is to say the ban is overly broad and should be tailored to removing job constraints on lower paid workers. President Joe Biden has claimed that “one in five workers without a college education is subject to non‐​compete agreements. They’re construction workers, hotel workers, disproportionately women and women of color.” The debate generally is predicated on the assumption that non-competes for low-wage workers, say, in the fast-food industry, are evidence of unjust corporate power. Why on earth should be a burger flipper be constrained in what future jobs they can take?

This argument, I suggest, still dismisses real trade-offs.

Consider the interaction between non-compete agreements and state or local minimum wage laws. Suppose a government raises its minimum wage, which makes it more costly for a business to pay a new worker. For the first few weeks of a job, the worker is presumably not up to speed. The firm may pay a lower basic wage rate overall to reflect that a new employee incurs costs of training and the risk that, after this training is complete, they might just decide to leave. Yet in the presence of a higher minimum wage, the initial loss crystallized will be higher and it will take more effort to make the worker profitable, making the risk of the employee jumping ship once they get trained up much more worrisome.

One business response to this may be to insist on a non-compete agreement. This at least reduces the risk that the company, having provided the training for the job, will see the employee leave for another franchise or firm during the period after which the worker becomes profitable to employ.

Sounds far fetched, right? Well, not really. In one interesting paper, economists Michael Lipsitz and Matthew Johnson provide a theoretical model which concludes: “firms that would otherwise not use NCAs [non-competes] are induced to use one in the presence of frictions to adjusting wages downward.”*

So far, so theoretical. But they also provide novel empirical support for this hypothesis. Using a new survey of salon owners, Lipsitz and Johnson find that minimum wage increases bolster non-compete use in the sector and that “minimum wage increases have a negative effect on employment only where NCAs [non-competes] are unenforceable.”

Non-competes for salaried salon workers, in other words, look very much like a way for companies to manage the extra risks and costs of hiring in a world of a higher wage floor. Take away companies’ ability to use non-competes, and increasing minimum wage rates are likely to lead to more job losses.

Now, this is one industry, so the results are suggestive, rather than definitive. Yet it’s important to remember that a lot of non-compete agreements in sectors like the fast-food industry are really non-poaching agreements that prevent other franchises *within* the same company from taking workers from each other. And as Jeffrey Clemens documents in an excellent chapter in our new Cato book, The War on Prices, high minimum wage rates regularly induce firms to adjust a range of benefits, scheduling, and other terms of employment, in order to mitigate the risks and costs of higher hourly pay.

Just as the proliferation of zero-hours (on-call) contracts in the UK is linked to increasing minimum wage rates, there are thus both theoretical and empirical reasons to think an increasing use of non-competes in the U.S. partly reflects aggressive state and local minimum wage increases. If this safety valve for companies is removed, there is a bigger risk that minimum wage hikes will lead to job losses.

For more on the minimum wage and other price controls, you can pre-order our forthcoming book, The War on Prices: How Popular Misconceptions about Inflation, Prices, and Value Create Bad Policy.

*As an aside, they are economists whose work on the impact of non-competes on innovation and consumer prices is widely cited by advocates for a ban.