How One of Trump’s Strengths Turned into a Big Weakness

Just 29 percent of Americans approve of the president’s handling of the area, while almost two-thirds — 64 percent — disapprove, a Economist/​YouGov poll found. Discontent with the highest inflation since 1981 propelled Trump back into office in 2024. But now it’s become a political albatross of his own.

While the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is still above its 2 percent target, February’s 2.8 percent rate was nowhere near the Biden administration peak of 7.2 percent in June 2022. Real earnings per worker rose by around $1,200 last year, too, meaning affordability (at least, on average) improved as pay grew faster than prices.

So what explains the continued discontent? Trump’s policies are certainly part of the answer. The recent drop in his approval on inflation, from minus 28 in early February, probably reflects the Iran war’s impact on gas prices, which pushed the inflation rate in March to 3.3 percent, the highest since Sept. 2023.

Trump’s tariffs likewise have raised input costs and consumer prices, while his pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates — combined with his comfort with massive federal deficits — risks investors’ faith in the government’s commitment to price stability.

These signature policies help explain why Trump’s slide started long before the war. His standing on inflation declined steadily throughout 2025, from a net favorable rating of six percentage points at the time of his inauguration to Biden-worthy lows that predate the attack on Tehran.

The deeper explanation, though, is that voters remain furious at the rise in costs from the inflationary period of 2021 to 2025. Since Trump cannot reverse those high prices, their disillusionment has grown.

According to a poll from Echelon Insights, 80 percent of likely voters thought the president would reduce prices once back in office. But while egg prices fell and gas got cheaper until recently, presidents can’t influence overall price levels as directly as Trump’s campaign speeches suggested. Grocery costs, utility bills and mortgage rates continue to give American families profound sticker shock. The Echelon poll also found that 74 percent of likely voters won’t believe inflation is solved unless prices fall. Since they haven’t, and won’t, the president gets blamed.

In an election year, that’s a big political problem.

The Biden administration and congressional Democrats spent years trying to deflect blame. They pointed to corporate collusion and greed, landlords, meat-packers, price gougers and Russian President Vladimir Putin — anyone but Congress and the Fed. None of that helped them much in November 2024.

Now back in office, Trump faces his own incentives to duck the true causes of inflation. He wants to avoid the monetary tightening necessary to force deflation, or even a sharp fall in inflation, as doing so risks recession. And given the Fed’s independence, he cannot dictate monetary policy anyway. Instead, both he and his Democratic rivals are searching for sector-based interventions to mollify the public.

The problem? Most of the ideas under consideration in Washington and state capitals flunk basic economics. Price controls on credit cards, rent and drugs would create shortages and reduce quality. More demand-side subsidies for health and child care would primarily shift costs from customers to taxpayers, driving up market prices. Restrictions on institutional investors buying homes, aggressive antitrust enforcement and government grocery stores all risk creating new inefficiencies, including empty shelves, less home building and black markets for food.

None of these policies make things cheaper to supply, nor are they significant enough to affect aggregate inflation.

If politicians were serious about dealing with the public’s discontent about prices, they would start by anchoring the Fed to a clear policy rule and stripping away its distracting regulatory functions. This would reduce the risk of the Fed hand-waving away inflation and tightening policy too slowly. Congress should also control the federal debt, which threatens to undermine the Fed’s independence and fuel future inflation as pressure builds on the central bank to help the federal government avoid spiraling interest costs.

Short of that, Trump could at least harness the deregulatory instincts of his first term. Government policies at every level inflate the costs felt by American consumers. Zoning and permitting rules strangle the housing supply, energy restrictions and tariffs raise utility bills, and agricultural mandates and tariffs increase food prices. Just as in the 1970s and ’80s, when deregulation of air travel and trucking lowered costs, liberating supply in these markets could reduce prices in ways that political theater about price gouging never will.

The president’s fortunes are a warning to every politician. When prices surge after long periods of stability, it’s not enough to assure the public that wages are rising faster than prices. The public wants lower costs. But that shouldn’t mean destructive gimmicks, price controls or more subsidies. Politicians who reach for those tools will find they’ve bought themselves a news cycle and solved nothing — and voters will notice.