The clear implication in much of this commentary is that we are now counting the days to the fated demise of the international organization that is supposed to provide a fair framework for a rule-based global system for international trade.
But not so fast. The WTO is still here. No one is packing up to leave Geneva. Nor should they.
WTO delegates have returned to Geneva from Abu Dhabi to continue negotiating. Although American and, increasingly, other unilateral trade actions are proliferating in violation of WTO rules (and, alas, still more are being proposed by both leading candidates for president), most of the trade among WTO members is still conducted every day in accordance with those agreed rules. Dispute settlement — though hindered by the misguided opposition of an increasingly protectionist United States — is still managing to function (as evidenced by the recent settlement of the wine dispute between Australia and China).
And two more countries — Comoros and Timor-Leste — were added there to the now 166 members of the WTO. Twenty-two other countries are waiting in line and transforming their local economies in a bid to get into the organization. If the WTO is doomed, why are all these countries in this queue?
Although the leaders of our country in both our major political parties have apparently forgotten why we helped create and remain in the WTO, the vast majority of its members — and those who hope to become members —recognize and continue to value the institution and the benefits membership in it provides. Lower tariffs. Larger market access. Legal safeguards against trade discrimination. An impartial setting for resolving trade disputes. And much more that altogether amounts to significantly increased economic national and global gains from trade. Those that are not yet members desire those same benefits. This is why no country that has joined the WTO has ever left.
To be sure, the Abu Dhabi conference was not a rousing success. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala — who is of course expected to put the best face on the facts — has said that the conference “produced mixed results: a few successes, but also some disappointments.” This is true enough, but the disappointments outweighed the successes, and they have, not surprisingly, drawn the most global attention.