Data from the Tax Policy Center show that 45 percent of U.S. households (“tax units”) will pay no federal income tax in 2015. That figure has risen in recent decades.
In raw numbers, 94 million households will pay some income tax in 2015, while 78 million will pay none. As the TPC table shows, virtually all higher-income households pay income tax, while the nonpayers are mainly in the bottom half.
Presidential candidate Donald Trump says that he would take another 31 million off the tax rolls, in addition to what he says are 42 million current nonpayers. As you can see, the Trump and TPC data do not match regarding the current number of nonpayers.
Let’s go with the TPC data. Adding tens of millions more nonpayers would push the total number over 100 million. There would be more “tax eaters” in America than taxpayers, at least in terms of the federal income tax.
To be fair, not all 100+ million nonpayers would be tax eaters. If someone paid no income tax, but also received no subsidies from the federal government, she could be called tax neutral. However, millions of moderate-income people receive the earned income tax credit (EITC), which is “refundable.” Those folks pay no income tax but get a check from the government when they file their tax return. They are tax eaters.
So a missing detail from the Trump proposal is his plan for the EITC. By zeroing out income tax for 31 million additional tax filers, he would automatically be boosting spending through the EITC. The refundable, or spending, part of the EITC is already $60 billion a year. Would Trump push that spending even higher?
I like many features of Trump’s overall tax plan. But taking more people off the tax rolls is not a good way to keep the government limited. If something is “free,” people will demand more of it. Under Trump, 31 million more households would have an incentive to demand more spending from Washington.