Slovak Election Update

Much of the world’s media portrayed the victory of the populist socialist party in the Slovak elections as the voters’ rejection of the free market reforms pursued by the center-right government of Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda. Not exactly.

First, the election turnout was only 55 percent (down from 70 percent in 2002). It is true that the socialists increased their support from 13.46 percent in 2002 to 29.14 percent in 2006. But the low election turnout means that the socialists had their program endorsed by only about 14 percent of eligible voters – hardly a ringing endorsement of a return to socialism.

Second, Dzurinda’s party did better than last time. It received 15.09 percent in 2002 and 18.35 percent this year. So did its coalition partners. Christian Democrats were up from 8.25 percent to 8.31 percent and the Hungarian minority party was up from 11.16 percent to 11.68 percent.

The real shockers were the reduction in the support for the Movement for Democratic Slovakia of the former Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar, which was down from 19.5 percent to 8.79 percent, and the rise of the Slovak National Party, which was not represented in the last parliament, but managed to get 11.73 percent in this year’s election.

The communists, who got 6.32 percent in 2002, did not make it to parliament. Unfortunately, the liberals who got 8.01 percent in 2002, did not make it to parliament either.

So, what does all of this mean?

As has been predicted, the three parties of the center right can count on 65 seats in the Slovak parliament of 150. They will thus be 11 seats short of a majority. The socialists will have 50 seats, but need 76 to form a government. With their racist, homophobic and socialist policies to the left of the communist party, the Slovak National Party will have 20 seats. That leaves Meciar and his 15 seats in the role of the kingmaker.

Ironically, Meciar’s worst electoral performance coincides with a huge increase of his party’s relevance for the future of Slovakia. If he throws his weight behind the socialist leader Robert Fico, he will, once again, take the country down the wrong path. If he goes into coalition with the center-right, the continuity of the liberal reforms will be assured. (Note: The Christian Democrats stated that they will not be in government with Meciar, because of his past authoritarianism. But, they might agree to give him in a largely symbolic role of the chairman of the Slovak parliament.)

The upshot is that under the Slovak electoral system, elections don’t conclude the process of political horse-trading. They begin that process. True, Fico, the socialist leader, will get the first crack at forming a government, but that does not mean much. Both in 1998 and in 2002, it was the second largest party in parliament that formed the government. In both cases, that party was Dzurinda’s party.

One can only hope that history repeats itself.