September 27, 2010 5:38PM

ObamaCare: Never Supported by a Majority, Now 10 Points behind with Likely Voters

With the addition of a poll by George Washington University and Politico — completed the day before ObamaCare started sending health insurance premiums higher, making coverage less accessible for children, and destroying health insurance innovations — Poll​ster​.com shows that among likely voters, ObamaCare now suffers a 10‐​point popularity gap:

(As I’ve noted before,’s local‐​regression trend estimate will head off in a direction different from public opinion if the latest poll is a fluke. But these trajectories are consistent with’s trend estimates for polls surveying registered voters and all adults, which incorporate many more data points.)

Also worth noting: ObamaCare has never enjoyed the support of a majority of likely voters or even all adults. For every poll that put ObamaCare above 50 percent — there have been only a few, and the highest showed only 53‐​percent support — many more polls clocked support at well below 50 percent. Thus’s trend estimate shows public support for ObamaCare peaked among all adults at 47 percent just after Obama’s inauguration, and has fallen to just below 40 percent today. Among likely voters (above), the high water mark was 45 percent in June, 2009, and now stands at just over 42 percent.

If Poll​ster​.com does a fair job of smoothing out the quirkiness of various polls, that means ObamaCare has never enjoyed the support of a majority of Americans.