According to the New York Times Morris Adelman, professor emeritus of economics at M.I.T. died on May 8 at the age of 96. His work, including Genie Out of the Bottle (M.I.T. Press 1995), informed the papers and articles on energy policy published by the Cato Institute over the last 30 years. A good summary of his views can be found in this article in Regulation from 2004.
His writing was refreshingly honest and is worth quoting at some length.
…conventional wisdom (there is that term again) is that Middle Eastern nations wield an “oil weapon” that they can use to punish the United States or any other nation. In support of this belief, many people point to the 1973 “oil embargo” against the United States by Arab members of OPEC (except Iraq — Saddam Hussein profited by it). Secretary of State Henry Kissinger cruised around the Middle East many times to negotiate an “end” to it. Ten years later, he explained that the significance of the “embargo” was psychological, not economic. Recently, the London Economist quoted approvingly what I said in July 1973: If an embargo was declared, it would have no effect because diversion would nullify it. And so it was.
The embargo against the United States never happened, and could not happen. The miserable, mile‐long lines outside of U.S. gasoline stations resulted from domestic price controls and allocations, not from any embargo. We ought not blame the Arabs for what we did to ourselves.”
“The real moral is this: It does not matter how much oil is produced domestically and how much is imported. Presidents may declare that there is an “urgent need” to cut imports and boost “energy independence” — no one ever lost political support by seeing evil and blaming foreigners. The facts are less dramatic.