The Supreme Court is soon expected to rule on the future of birthright citizenship in Trump v. Barbara. If the Court rules in favor of the Trump administration, birthright citizenship will be restricted. Not only is birthright citizenship enshrined in the United States Constitution by the 14th Amendment, but it has also greatly benefited the United States economy.
A new peer-reviewed study in the Journal on Migration and Human Security, authored by researchers at Princeton University, Cornell University, and Notre Dame University, conservatively estimates the economic impact of birthright citizens’ incomes to be $7.7 trillion in 2024 USD. This means that the United States would be leaving trillion-dollar bills on the sidewalk by restricting access to United States citizenship.
The president’s executive order on birthright citizenship not only bars citizenship to the children of unauthorized immigrants, but also to the children of parents on work (H‑1B, O‑1, etc.) and study-based visas (F‑1, M‑1, J‑1, etc.). Even without birthright citizenship, these children may eventually be eligible for US citizenship through other pathways, but granting these children United States citizenship at birth minimizes needless government red tape and boosts the economic productivity of children of immigrants and their parents by encouraging them to invest in their education and skills.
A child who is born a US citizen is a child who is incentivized to adopt American culture from birth. As United States citizens, they know they can live their entire lives in this country and make full use of American institutions. Birthright citizens are incentivized to invest in their human capital—to focus on their studies and to develop skills that will make them economically productive, tax-paying adults.
If, instead, children of immigrants are born with only the citizenship of their parents’ country of origin, they will sense the risk that any investment in skills valuable to the US economy may be wasted if they are forced to leave. While some skills are transferable across economies, some are country-specific (e.g., language) or have lower returns abroad. Rather than focusing on their studies and fully embracing American culture, children of immigrants denied birthright citizenship may focus their energies on less productive activities. Why should they invest in their human capital if they are uncertain about their future in this country?
Similarly, the parents of these children are incentivized to assimilate into the United States when their children are granted birthright citizenship. Even if the parents of birthright citizens do not gain a pathway to citizenship for themselves, they will be grateful for the opportunities United States citizenship provides their children. Parents will do everything they can to allow their children to succeed in this country, such as joining parent-teacher associations and encouraging their children to speak English and study for high-earning careers.
The value of granting citizenship to children of immigrants at birth is not speculative. Prior research by economists in the Journal of Law and Economics found that after reforms to its nationality law, the parents of birthright citizens in Germany were more likely to adopt their host country’s language and interact more with the local community. Birthright citizenship in the United States likewise promotes loyalty and assimilation from its beneficiaries and their families.
Restricting birthright citizenship would, instead of promoting civic-minded, economically productive new Americans, create an underclass of noncitizens who, even if eventually eligible for United States citizenship through other means, could be harmed by exclusion from public life during their formative years. Youth is when people form strong bonds with their communities and the nation and when key decisions are made about the formation of human capital, such as investments in skills.
The Journal on Migration and Human Security study uses established econometric methods to estimate the economic impact of birthright citizens’ incomes between 1975 and 2074. The study relies on identifying the children of two unauthorized or temporary visa parents in the United States Census’ American Community Survey and supplementary data products.
Since the study estimates the effect of birthright citizens who have two unauthorized or temporary visa parents, it underestimates the economic impact of birthright citizenship. It does not count the children born to mixed-status households. Nor does the study account for previous beneficiaries of birthright citizenship who emigrated, died, or were otherwise not accounted for in the latest census data. It measures incomes, so it does not account for the value of goods, inventions, businesses, and other economic value created by birthright citizens. For these reasons, the estimated $7.7 trillion economic impact, measured by birthright citizens’ income, is a conservative calculation.
Table 1 presents the number of birthright citizenship beneficiaries by state/region of residence, and over time. Among current working-age beneficiaries, those born between 1960 and 2009, a majority live in the Western United States, with approximately 40 percent of them residing in California and an additional 18 percent in Texas. The geographical distribution of beneficiaries is expected to change. The number of working-age beneficiaries living in the American South and Midwest will more than double soon. These prime-age workers will help rustbelt cities turn around demographic decline in the Midwest and further grow metropolises in the South.
The labor force created by birthright citizenship is, and is expected to remain, predominantly skilled. The study estimates that approximately 69 percent of birthright citizens work or will work in occupations that require some college, and 14 percent of those employed in skilled occupations are estimated to be working in the healthcare industry. Birthright citizenship not only provides the United States with a boost to its labor force but also a boost to its skilled labor force. Even many beneficiaries employed in occupations not requiring a college education work in essential services that increase the productivity of the US workforce.
The economic contribution of birthright citizens is only expected to grow over time. Between 1975 and 1979, birthright citizens are estimated to have contributed approximately $2 billion in 2024 USD to the United States economy. Between 2025 and 2029, the economic impact of birthright citizens as measured by income is estimated at $438 billion in 2024 USD; a staggering 200-fold increase. The increase in economic impact is partly driven by a growing population of working-age birthright citizens, but also by improvements in education and skills. The economic impact of birthright citizenship beneficiaries is only expected to increase as birthright beneficiaries continue to invest in their human capital.
As my colleague David Bier has previously noted, second-generation Americans as a group have the greatest fiscal upside: at any given age, they make the highest net contribution to all levels of government. Birthright beneficiaries contribute to the United States economy, work in skilled and needed professions, revitalize cities, create businesses that employ United States citizens, and generate more than their fair share of taxes.
Birthright citizenship has been a great economic benefit to the United States. Even if the Supreme Court rules that the federal government can restrict birthright citizenship, it would be an economically disastrous public policy decision that would leave the United States poorer. America should preserve its highly successful policy of birthright citizenship.
