gambling

Are the Caps Really Underdogs? The Economics of Sports Books in the Wake of Murphy v. NCAA

Washington Capitals fans (including this writer) were overjoyed last Thursday night when the team defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning to move onto the National Hockey League’s Stanley Cup Final. But for some Caps fans, that joy soured a bit the next morning when they discovered that Las Vegas oddsmakers have made Washington the underdog in the championship series against the Vegas Golden Knights (VGK).

The VGK have odds of 10/13 to win the series, meaning gamblers would have to bet $13 on the Knights to win $10 (plus the return of their original wager) if the Knights win the series. The Caps are $11/10, meaning a $10 bet would yield $11 if Washington captain Alex Ovechkin hoists Lord Stanley’s Cup. The numbers against the Capitals aren’t lopsided, but they’re a decided nod to the VGK.

Caps fans are a notoriously gloomy, self-afflicted lot given the team’s playoff history, so it’s not surprising they quickly found the cloud surrounding Thursday’s silver lining. Betting odds—basically, futures—are commonly thought to represent the collective intelligence of the marketplace and that wisdom apparently says the Caps’ history of playoff heartbreak will continue.

Or maybe not.

In an article in the forthcoming summer issue of my journal Regulation, economist Ike Brannon discusses bookmaking (the art of setting betting lines)—both legal and illegal—in light of the recent Supreme Court decision striking down a federal law prohibiting most states from legalizing sports gambling. (The article will be available at www.cato.org/regulation in a few weeks.) Borrowing from the work of Wake Forest University economist Koleman Strumpf, who has studied illegal sports gambling extensively, Brannon points out some features of bookmaking that should encourage Caps fans—and should interest anyone who is intrigued by this market-driven process.

Betting on Freedom: The Federal Ban on States Legalizing Sports Gambling

Have you ever played fantasy sports for money? Have you ever participated in your office March Madness pool? Well, if you did, you may have broken federal law, which is quite ridiculous. If you’ve bet on your local jai alai match, though, that was probably safe.

In sports gambling, as is so often the case with many things, the law is not keeping up with our behavior and attitudes. There’s a growing movement to modernizing our gambling laws, including some new coalitions, such as the American Sports Betting Coalition (ASBC), and at least one case pending at the Supreme Court. That case, Christie v. NCAA, is a challenge to the constitutionality of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992 (PASPA). Cato supported the petition, which will be discussed by the justices next week. 

PASPA outlawed sports betting, with the exception of horse racing and jai alai (obviously), in most states. In classic, horse-trading style, carve outs were made for Oregon, Delaware, Montana, and Nevada. Even worse, the law prohibits states from “authorizing” sports gambling “by law,” which should be regarded as a violation of states’ rights protected by the Tenth Amendment—but the Third Circuit didn’t see it that way. The irony, of course, is that 44 states and 47 jurisdictions (D.C., U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico) all have government-run lotteries, because evidently those governments are okay with gambling that benefits their budgets.

By overturning the restrictive federal ban on sports betting, states will be empowered to make their own decision about whether or not to allow it. If states were able to make their own laws about sports betting, areas where it is allowed could see economic growth sparked by increased tourism and an increase in betting-related jobs, as well as other industries springing up around this new frontier of economic possibility. Oxford Economics—one of the world’s leaders in global forecasting and quantitative analysis—has estimated that legal sports betting could add $14 billion to the national economy, generate up to $27 billion in total economic impact, and support 152,000 American jobs. In addition to these economic benefits, overturning such a ban would give states and local law enforcement the ability to oversee legal gambling, thus taking power from dangerous underground gambling rings. 

At its root, this is an issue of federalism; people in cities and towns across America should be able to decide for themselves if sports betting is something they want for their communities. Many of them do; nearly 7 in 10 Americans believe that the issue should not be left to the federal government, and 72 percent of avid sports fans support the legalization of sports betting. 

Britain’s Brown Bounces Betting Businesses

A further chapter in Britain’s economic suicide comes from Tax Notes International today (subscription only):

In a move apparently aimed at lowering their tax bills, major U.K. sports bookmakers William Hill and Ladbrokes plan to relocate their sports betting operations to Gibraltar, according to media reports.

One Step Closer to Gambling Online?

Following on from the mildly good news of a few weeks ago, Barney Frank (D, MA) has announced that he will introduce a bill tomorrow to roll back current restrictions on gambling online (the restrictions are made operative by bans on U.S. banks from processing transactions to and from gambling websites).  Although the details of the bill are yet to be released, this here article contains some good analysis.

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