climate

Some More Insensitivity about Global Warming

Hot off the press, in yesterday’s Journal of Climate, Nic Lewis and Judith Curry have re-calculated the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) based upon the historical uptake of heat into the ocean and human emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. ECS is the net warming one expects for doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide. Their ECS ranges from 1.50 to 1.56 degrees Celsius.

EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt Suspended Obama Era Fuel Standards for 2022. He’s Got the Science Right.

Last August, the Federal Register announced a period of public commentary on information germane to a new set of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for the 2022-2025 period. The extant standard, of roughly 50 miles per gallon (MPG) for passenger cars and other light vehicles, was put in place in January 2017, right at the end of the Obama Administration.

You Ought to Have a Look: Lukewarming the News

Scientific American, which is quite reliably alarmed by the prospects of climate change, showed signs of moderation this week in an article highlighting the work of the ecomodernists. The ecomodernists acknowledge that man-made climate change is occurring, but believe humans are already (and will continue) decoupling their well-being from environmental destruction—meaning every day that passes, human flourishing requires less pollution and resources. Though not libertarians, they are spot-on in regards to climate change being a minor overlay in a world increasingly insulated from the vagaries of nature due to market forces. The piece, titled Should We Chill Out about Global Warming?, is answered with an unqualified YES! from those of us at the Center for the Study of Science.

One of their ecomodernist peers, journalist Will Boisvert, recently pondered in a piece, “How bad will climate change be?” He has a voluminous response that’s worth a read, which he quickly summarizes as “Not very.” He went on to note what many of us have been saying for years—as long as there has been capital for innovation and civil order, we’ve been adapting to climate change, and will continue to do so. Boisvert neatly skewers horseman after horseman of the apocalypse—drought, hunger and heat, and notes our increasingly clean and efficient energy technology.

Global Science Report: Another Indication of Lukewarming

In March 1990, NASA’s Roy Spencer and University of Alabama-Huntsville’s (UAH) John Christy dropped quite a bomb when they published the first record of lower atmospheric temperatures sensed by satellites’ microwave sounding units (MSUs). While they only had ten years of data, it was crystal clear there was no significant warming trend.

It was subsequently discovered by Frank Wentz of Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), a Santa Rosa (CA) consultancy, that the orbits of the sensing satellites successively decay (i.e., become lower) and this results in a spurious but slight cooling trend. Using a record ending in 1995, Wentz showed a slight warming trend of 0.07⁰C/decade, about half of what was being observed by surface thermometers. 

In 1994, Christy and another UAH scientist, Richard McNider, attempted to remove “natural” climate change from the satellite data by backing out El Niño/La Niña fluctuations and the cooling associated with two big volcanoes in 1983 and 1991. They arrived at a warming trend of 0.09⁰C/decade after their removal.

Over the years, Spencer and Christy slightly revised their record repeatedly, and its latest iteration shows a total warming trend of 0.13⁰C/decade, which includes natural variability. But it is noteworthy that this is biased upward by very warm readings near the end of the record, thanks to the 2015–16 El Niño.

What You Won’t Find in the New National Climate Assessment

Under the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990, the federal government has been charged with producing large National Climate Assessments (NCA), and today the most recent iteration has arrived. It is typical of these sorts of documents–much about how the future of mankind is doomed to suffer through increasingly erratic weather and other tribulations. It’s also missing a few tidbits of information that convincingly argue that everything in it with regard to upcoming 21st century climate needs to be taken with a mountain of salt.

The projections in the NCA are all based upon climate models. If there is something big that is systematically wrong with them, then the projections aren’t worth making or believing. 

Here’s the first bit of missing information:

Changes in the Climate Policy Winds

Yesterday, Nature Geosciences published an article by Richard Millar of the University of Exeter and nine coauthors that states the climate models have been predicting too much warming. Adjusting for this, along with slight increases in emissions reductions by the year 2030 (followed by much more rapid ones after then) leaves total human-induced warming of around 1.5⁰C by 2100, which conveniently is the aspirational warming target in the Paris Accord. Much of it is a lot like material in our 2016 book Lukewarming.

This represents a remarkable turnaround. At the time of Paris, one of the authors, Michael Grubb, said its goals were “simply incompatible with democracy.” Indeed, the apparent impossibility of Paris was seemingly self-evident. What he hadn’t recognized at the time was the reality of “the pause” in warming that began in the late 1990s and ended in 2015. Taking this into consideration changes things.

If Paris is an admitted failure, then the world is simply not going to take their (voluntary, unenforceable) Paris “Contributions” seriously, but Millar’s new result changes things. He told Jeff Tollefson, a reporter for Nature, “For a lot of people, it would probably be easier if the Paris goal was actually impossible. We’re showing that it’s still possible. But the real question is whether we can create the policy action that would actually be required to realize these scenarios.”

Suddenly it’s feasible, if only we will reduce our emissions even more.

Coincidentally, we just had a peer-reviewed paper accepted for publication by the Air and Waste Management Association and it goes Millar et al. one better. It’s called “Reconciliation of Competing Climate Science and Policy Paradigms,” and you can find an advanced copy here.

We note the increasing discrepancy between the climate models and reality, but what we do, instead of running a series of new models, is rely upon the mathematical form of observed warming. Since the second warming of the 20th century began in the late 1970s, and despite the “pause,” the rate has been remarkably linear, which is actually simulated by most climate models—they just overestimate the slope of the increase. However, one model, the INM-CM4 model from Russia’s E.M. Volodin, indeed does have the right rate of increase.

Figure 1. Despite the “pause”, the warming beginning in the late 1970s is remarkably linear, which is a general prediction of climate models. The models simply overestimated the rate of increase.

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