Will Prohibiting Vapes Work? Evidence from a Survey in Türkiye

Over the past decade, the tobacco product landscape has evolved significantly with the advent of noncombustible nicotine delivery systems, most notably electronic cigarettes, also known as vapes. The emergence of vapes has sparked a debate about their advantages and disadvantages. Some policymakers argue that their trial and use among nonsmokers, especially teen nonsmokers, could lead to another generation of nicotine addiction and even increase cigarette use. The concern about youth onset has triggered scrutiny of flavored vape products, as policymakers view these as especially attractive to young consumers. Proponents, however, emphasize that vapes pose lower health risks than traditional cigarettes and may support efforts to reduce or quit smoking. Policymakers thus face a regulatory dilemma: how to harness the potential public health benefits of vaping for adult smokers while mitigating the risks of uptake among new users. Given the rising prevalence of these alternative nicotine products and the uncertainty surrounding the optimal regulatory approach, governments in many countries have banned their sales. Türkiye banned the import of vapes with a presidential decree issued on February 25, 2020, and because the government has not approved domestic production, vapes are effectively banned in the country.

The ban on importing vapes led to the emergence of an illegal market for these products. Despite the ban, a significant number of consumers currently use vapes. Understanding the economic and health consequences of the ban thus requires research that addresses the emergence of illegal markets. We conducted an online experiment eliciting preferences of adult Turkish smokers for traditional cigarettes, roll-your-own cigarettes, vapes, and quitting. The data allowed us to estimate the impact of prospective government policies such as lifting the ban on vapes, better preventing illegal markets for vapes, allowing the sale of flavored vapes, and using tax policy to influence choices.

Our findings indicate that the prices of nicotine products and the prices of substitute nicotine products heavily influenced consumers’ choices, suggesting that taxation remains a highly effective tool in discouraging cigarette use. Our findings also show that consumers shifted their choices toward traditional tobacco products when vapes became restricted or unavailable. This is a concerning unintended consequence because traditional cigarettes are more harmful than vapes. Consumers showed a strong aversion to using illicit products: On average, consumers were willing to pay 37–50 percent less for illegal vapes relative to the average price of a pack of cigarettes. Notably, these percentages are lower than the current tax rate on cigarettes in Türkiye; taxes on packaged cigarettes account for about 80–85 percent of their price. Therefore, our findings imply that legalizing vapes and taxing them at a lower rate than cigarettes could improve public health outcomes by encouraging smokers to switch from cigarettes to vapes. Overall, our study emphasizes the importance of a balanced regulatory approach that reduces harm without unintentionally driving consumers toward riskier products.

Note
This research brief is based on Asena Caner et al., “A Discrete Choice Analysis of Consumer Decisions: Nicotine Products in an Illicit Market,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper no. 34201, September 2025, which was supported by a grant to Cornell University and the Economic Research Agenda Association from Global Action to End Smoking (formerly the Foundation for a Smoke-Free World), an independent US nonprofit 501(c)(3) grant-making organization. Global Action to End Smoking played no role in the design, implementation, data analysis, or interpretation of the research results, nor did Global Action to End Smoking edit or approve any presentations or publications from the study. The contents of this study and the selection and presentation of facts, as well as any opinions expressed, are the authors’ sole responsibility and should not be regarded as reflecting the positions of Global Action to End Smoking. Through September 2023, Global Action to End Smoking received charitable gifts from Philip Morris International, which manufactures cigarettes and other tobacco products. To complement the termination of its agreement with Philip Morris International, Global Action to End Smoking’s board of directors established a new policy to not accept or seek any tobacco or nonmedicinal nicotine industry funding.