In new analysis, the Cato Institute’s Romina Boccia and Krit Chanwong examine who would bear the cost if Congress eliminated Social Security’s payroll tax cap, finding the tax increase would fall disproportionately on workers in affluent Democratic congressional districts and on medical professionals.

  • 62.7 percent of workers earning above the taxable maximum live in Democratic districts. The average Democratic district has 92 such workers per 1,000 residents, compared with 53 in the average Republican district.
  • The 10 congressional districts with the highest shares of affected workers are all represented by Democrats, concentrated in New York City, Seattle, and coastal California.
  • Surgeons, physicians, nurse anesthetists, architectural and engineering managers, and dentists are among the most affected occupations. Roughly 8 in 10 surgeons and 6 in 10 physicians earn above the current taxable maximum.

Boccia and Chanwong argue that eliminating the cap would at best close about 30 percent of Social Security’s funding shortfall, while increasing marginal tax rates on highly productive workers and potentially reducing work, saving, investment, and long-run economic growth. They argue Congress cannot tax its way around the need to confront the program’s growing benefit obligations.

If you’re interested in speaking with Romina about this analysis, I’m happy to connect you.

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Ryan Carver
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