The Social Security Trustees Report is out, and the program’s retirement trust fund is now projected to run dry in 2032, a year earlier than projected in last year’s report. The program’s 75-year funding gap is now $29 trillion in present-value terms, up from $25 trillion projected last year.

Romina Boccia, Cato’s Director of Budget and Entitlement Policy, has reviewed the report and is available to offer analysis and reaction. Among her key takeaways on why the projections have deteriorated over the past year:

  • The Trustees revised their fertility assumptions downward, from an ultimate rate of 1.9 children per woman to 1.75. While more realistic than before, the Trustees remain more optimistic in their fertility projections than the Congressional Budget Office and the Census Bureau, suggesting that they may be understating the program’s funding gap.
     
  • The Trustees assume lower levels of temporary and unlawful immigration as a result of restrictive border policies, meaning a smaller workforce and lower payroll tax revenues.
     
  • The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) provisions, including permanently lower income tax rates and a temporarily expanded senior deduction, reduced the program’s revenues by lowering income from benefit taxation.

Boccia also offered the following statement:

“The Trustees are warning Congress that Social Security’s finances are deteriorating faster than expected. Lawmakers should stop pretending time is on their side and begin enacting gradual reforms now, while they still have good options available.

Every year of delay means fewer choices, steeper adjustments, and a larger burden on younger workers and future taxpayers. Congress should use this report as a call to action, not another excuse to kick the can down the road.”

If you’d like to speak with Boccia, please contact Madison: mmiller@​cato.​org.