The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently reported a 13.9% decline in overdose deaths during a 12-month period, ending in December 2025. In a new blog post, Dr. Jeffrey Singer, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, explains that this decline might signal a return to pre-pandemic trends and certainly does not indicate the success of the drug war. Dr. Singer writes in part:

Washington will almost certainly try to claim credit for the decline in overdose deaths. But nothing in the evidence suggests that bombing suspected traffickers, intensifying interdiction, or escalating prohibition deserves the credit. If bombing traffickers and escalating interdiction were meaningfully reducing supply, illicit drug prices should be rising. Instead, black markets continue to deliver cheaper, more potent, and more easily transported substances. After more than 50 years of failure, the drug war remains far better at generating black markets than saving lives.

To speak with Dr. Singer about the decline of overdoses in 2025, contact Cato PR at pr@​cato.​org.