In a new op-ed, Cato Institute trade experts Colin Grabow and Clark Packard argue that the White House’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks amount to “pure fiscal fantasy,” driven by “fantastical math” and “considerable legal obstacles.”
Grabow and Packard say “Total tariff collections – of which Trump’s tariffs are but a subset – amounted to $195 billion in the 2025 fiscal year. Yet, independent analyses find that sending $2,000 payments, even just to tax filers earning under $100,000, would cost between nearly $280 billion and $450 billion. In other words, the White House is promising a dividend that is far larger than the revenue it actually collects”
More Recent Statements on Tariff Rollbacks:
Self-Inflicted Damage, Tariff Whiplash: Scott Lincicome Responds to White House Rollbacks
To reach Grabow or Packard for questions, please contact Emily Salamon at esalamon@cato.org
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