President Donald Trump has promised a $5,000 “dividend” check to every American adult if Republicans hold the House and Senate after the midterms. Vice President JD Vance said in an interview the money would come from tariff revenue. Cato Institute research associate Alfredo Carrillo Obregon shared this analysis:

“Giving a $5,000 check to every adult in the United States would entail a total cost of about $1.3 trillion. That is nearly five times the total amount the government raised from tariffs, on net, in 2025 ($264 billion), and about 60 to 75 percent of the revenue the administration’s tariffs are projected to generate over a decade (according to the latest estimates). Furthermore, net tariff revenue has been negative since May, as the government has had to refund the tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court earlier this year. In sum, even setting aside the legal and practical obstacles to using this money, the idea that tariff revenue can fund this one-time payment is simply not realistic.”

If you’d like to speak with Alfredo, please contact Madison: mmiller@​cato.​org.