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Catastrophic Success: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Goes Wrong

(Cornell University Press, 2021)

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Featuring
Alexander Downes headshot
Alexander B. Downes

Author, Associate Professor and Codirector of the Institute for Security and Conflict Studies, George Washington University

Ben Denison
Ben Denison

Nonresident Fellow, Defense Priorities

Melissa Willard-Foster
Melissa Willard-Foster

Associate Professor, University of Vermont

The United States is enamored with regime change. Washington has toppled more than 30 foreign leaders since the start of the 20th century, making it the world leader in regime change by a wide margin. Yet, as the U.S. experience in Afghanistan shows, regime change often has devastating unintended consequences. Author Alexander B. Downes will discuss how regime change often leads to conflict by disintegrating the targeted state’s military and creating a foreign master for the new government. While different kinds of regime change have different levels of risk, Downes will explain that, on balance, regime change increases the likelihood of conflict both within the targeted state and between the target and the intervener. Please join us for a discussion with the author and a panel of experts.

Catastrophic Success book cover

Catastrophic Success: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Goes Wrong

In Catastrophic Success, Alexander B. Downes compiles all instances of regime change around the world over the past two centuries. Drawing on this impressive data set, Downes shows that regime change increases the likelihood of civil war and violent leader removal in target states and fails to reduce the probability of conflict between intervening states and their targets. As Downes demonstrates, when a state confronts an obstinate or dangerous adversary, the lure of toppling its government and establishing a friendly administration is strong. The historical record, however, shows that foreign-imposed regime change is, in the long term, neither cheap, easy, nor consistently successful.