The downfall of Nicolás Maduro rightfully caused celebration among Venezuelans whose hope for an end to tyranny was bolstered by the Trump administration’s announcement that supporting a transition to democracy was part of its mission.
If that is indeed the mission, the U.S. plan to work hand in hand with the remaining regime leaders to stabilize the country for an unspecified period of time is a strategic mistake. Like the Chavista regime itself, acting Venezuelan president Delcy Rodríguez, minister of the interior Diosdado Cabello, and minister of defense Vladimir Padrino López, have no legitimacy among Venezuelans. Ideologically committed socialists, they’ve played key roles in institutionalizing brutal repression and cannot credibly be counted on to help restore growth or basic freedoms.
The arrangement is especially unsustainable because Cabello and Padrino López have so much blood on their hands. They cannot be expected to sit idly by as Rodríguez ushers in a transition, so we should not be surprised if internal distrust erupts into violent infighting.
Washington should immediately begin a transition to democracy by working with the leader of the legitimately elected opposition, María Corina Machado, and its president elect, Edmundo González. Machado and her team enjoy legitimacy and overwhelming popularity. They also have a well-thought-out plan for the first 100 hours and the first 100 days of a transition in a scenario that looks a lot more like Eastern Europe in 1989 than Iraq in 2003. Legitimacy can trigger a collapse of a regime that has little internal or external support.