Substantial manpower and materiel losses will limit the Zelensky government’s ability to sustain its efforts, yet the American and European governments appear unwilling or unable to replace lost equipment. In fact, the allied military cornucopia is rapidly emptying. A gaggle of visiting Europeans recently admitted that their peoples were tired of underwriting Ukraine’s war effort. Americans remain sympathetic to Kiev, but their patience will be tested in coming months.
The top Ukrainian commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, recently offered a surprisingly pessimistic account. Of the current fighting, he allowed: “Without being fully supplied, these plans are not feasible at all.” The Washington Post reported that “His troops also should be firing at least as many artillery shells as their enemy, Zaluzhny said, but have been outshot tenfold at times because of limited resources.”
Moreover, the Post reported, “Zaluzhny expressed frustration that while his biggest Western backers would never launch an offensive without air superiority, Ukraine still has not received modern fighter jets but is expected to rapidly take back territory from the occupying Russians.” Yet even those planes would not deliver air superiority against Moscow’s well-regarded air defenses, including control over its airspace, from which many Russian planes operate.
Perhaps even more crippling: Ukraine cannot easily replace the loss of so many trained personnel. Noted Le Monde, “The time when army recruitment offices were overwhelmed with requests from civilians ready to take up arms seems to be over.” And current military exigencies make extended training before deployment difficult if not impossible. Despite the flight of some draft age men, Russia retains a substantial population edge, an advantage enhanced by Ukraine’s population drain as refugees escape westward.
What if Kiev’s current offensive fails to yield a decisive Ukrainian breakthrough and Russian collapse? Deadlock is bad for Russia but worse for Ukraine, which provides the battleground. Moreover, an exhausted and diminished Ukrainian military would be vulnerable to renewed Russian attacks. Although Moscow doesn’t look close to victory as some analysts have repeatedly claimed, it appears stronger than the allies insist.
The Biden administration continues to say that only Kiev can decide its war ends, but the latter cannot bind the allies. Today the Zelensky government, backed (or forced) by a large majority of Ukraine’s population, is committed to recovering lost territory. Unfortunately, Kiev’s desire appears to vastly outstrip its means. A dramatic Ukrainian advance or convincing pacific Russian political shift remain possible but look increasingly unlikely.
Washington must decide policy based on American interests. An open-ended conflict with steadily increasing entanglement against a nuclear-armed power with far more at stake is a bad deal for the American people. The Biden administration should engage in serious discussions with Moscow about ending the conflict and building a stable security structure.
A realistic agreement means Ukraine would not regain territory lost in 2014 and even over the last year. In fact, discreet talks may have already begun, which could explain Kiev’s latest hardline declarations. The situation is reminiscent of American negotiations to end the Korean War. The South Korean government, which could not fight alone, nevertheless sought to thwart an agreement and keep Washington in the war.
Of course, the Zelensky government might not agree to concessions even under pressure.. But then it should understand that it would be on its own. Ultimately, Washington must protect its own people first. And that means ending today’s dangerous confrontation with Russia.
As for Europe, the U.S. should engage in burden-shifting rather than ‑sharing. The time is long past for the continent to take the lead in its own defense. Even now, with Moscow perceived as a significant security threat, Europeans admit that they fear doing more would encourage America to leave. Thus, Washington needs to begin leaving to force allied governments to take over their own defense. Uncle Sam no longer can afford to underwrite dozens of deadbeat allies who believe their security is America’s responsibility.
Russia’s unjustified attack on Ukraine has had horrendous consequences. Unfortunately, the allies share blame for the conflict, having recklessly ignored Moscow’s security interests and warnings. Washington should take the lead in searching for peace.