Of course, there is still plenty of bad news and the gap could grow again in the future. Over the past two decades, however, the most vulnerable countries may have suffered their worst. Seeming political stabilization, even at a lower level, may increase chances of a democratic revival.
Also important was the continuing resistance to oppression, often at great personal cost and risk. Freedom House contends that “ongoing protests against repression in Iran, Cuba, China, and other authoritarian countries suggest that people’s desire for freedom is enduring, and that no setback should be regarded as permanent.” In these and other nations, brutal regimes were shaken by strong, even heroic resistance.
Finally, the organization concludes that “the most significant positive developments were driven by competitive elections in Latin America and Africa, with politicians and ordinary people in the affected countries reaffirming their commitment to the democratic process.” Usually younger generations led the fight for change and against authoritarian rule, unwilling to accept what always has been as what always must be.
The worst setbacks last year reflected wars, most dramatically Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with all of the resulting horrors. Indeed, Russia’s abuses were significant even before invading Ukraine last February. Freedom House points out that “Moscow’s occupation of Crimea and eastern Donbas has entailed a long-standing campaign of forced ethnic change in those Ukrainian territories. Since 2014, many Crimean Tatars and ethnic Ukrainians have left the regions, driven not only by political persecution and the violence of war but also by overt policies of Russification.” The Putin government has extended many of these policies to new lands occupied over the past 14-plus months.
Another terrible tragedy was Ethiopia: “The ongoing civil conflict centered on the northern Tigray region has resulted in, among other abuses, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and the expulsion of hundreds of thousands of people from their homes on the basis of their ethnicity.”
Alas, nominal peace can be as bad as war for residents, especially when ideologues untethered to reality take control. For instance, Afghanistan’s situation has continued to deteriorate: “Since overthrowing Afghanistan’s elected government in 2021, the Taliban have presided over a catastrophic economic collapse, a surge in hunger and poverty, and mass emigration. Rather than taking steps that would reduce its international isolation, however, the regime has moved in the opposite direction.”
Another source of tyranny is coups, overt in Burkina Faso and self-directed in Peru last year. Earlier military takeovers, most notably in Burma/Myanmar, Guinea, and Thailand, continued to undermine democratic freedoms. In Burma the military completely dismantled the limited democratic institutions it had established a decade before. And President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan still used Turkey’s attempted coup of 2016 as a justification for his slow march to dictatorship.
Elected officials also often undermined the very democratic processes that brought them to power. Ostentatiously abusing their power to fulfill grand, autocratic visions at their people’s expense were leaders of Brazil, El Salvador, Hungary, and Tunisia. Some, such as Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, largely backed down from their abusive rhetoric. In contrast, in Tunisia, President Kais Saied appears headed toward a full scale dictatorship, with widespread arrests of political critics and opponents.
One unsettling change, notes Freedom House, is that “it has become more difficult to consolidate nascent democratic institutions in recent decades. More and more countries have remained Partly Free instead of moving toward full democratization.” Too many have become stuck, lacking critical values, practices, and institutions.
The transition away from autocracy is a key moment. Countries such as South Korea and Taiwan evolved from dictatorships into vibrant, sometimes tempestuous democracies. Advocates of liberal societies need to identify how to help newly democratic systems deepen their popular legitimacy and institutional foundations.
Freedom House hopes that 2023 will turn out to be a turning point toward greater liberty and democracy. However, the battle for a better, freer future may be one of years and decades. As Freedom House itself acknowledges: “In 1973, when Freedom House published its first comprehensive assessment of political rights and civil liberties, only 44 of 148 countries were classified as Free. Today, 84 of 195 countries are Free. The varied paths that these countries followed show there is no single method for improving or protecting political rights and civil liberties.”
In the mid-1980s there were almost equal numbers of Free, Partly Free, and Not Free nations. The events surrounding 1989 freed hundreds of millions of people in one go. Today we face the tougher task of advancing liberty one people and country at a time, starting with our own. And having achieved a freer society, we must never take its fruits for granted.