Also critical is Western silence on the standards for removing sanctions. Some analysts appear ready to keep sanctions even after the fighting stops, especially if outsize war aims have not been met. Putin’s ouster is one possible objective. War-crimes trials for Putin and other officials is another. Making Russia pay reparations is a third; some analysts have suggested simply transferring seized and frozen assets to Ukraine.
Yet such strategies, while superficially attractive in principle, are dubious in practice. There is no guarantee that Putin’s replacement would be an improvement. Putin and those around him are hard men, but no evidence has yet emerged that they ordered what look like atrocities— terrible, but the sort of crimes also committed by the allies’ armed forces (remember My Lai in Vietnam?). And lawlessly distributing frozen assets, which Washington also is doing in Afghanistan, contributes to civilian malnutrition and hardship and will drive other nations to move their resources outside of Western control.
Worse, all these steps would encourage Moscow to keep fighting. Rather like demands for unconditional surrender, these threats discourage peace, especially if Moscow believes it still has a reasonable chance of victory, even if that requires employing greater, more-destructive firepower. Ukrainians no doubt desire victory, but they should remember that the allies will not give it to them. Rather, the West will ensure that Ukrainians can fight forever to achieve it. Which still might mean never.
At least the Biden administration can’t yet bring itself to demand that Ukrainians keep fighting if peace becomes possible. Some U.S. analysts don’t feel so inhibited. “Ukraine must win,” declared the Atlantic’s Anne Applebaum. Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges announced: “The administration and NATO need to talk about winning, about helping Ukraine win, not just about avoiding losing, or preventing Russia from winning.”
Most revealing, perhaps, was a declaration by the Economist that a Ukrainian victory would be a “prize for the West.” Indeed, not just the West, but “the whole world” would gain. So why make peace easy, wondered foreign policy official and journalist David Rothkopf? He tweeted: “To those who have called for an ‘off-ramp’ for Putin, I have just one question. Don’t you feel ashamed of yourselves?” The war risks becoming about everything and everyone except the Ukrainian people.
It is Ukraine that is being ravaged by war. It is Ukrainians that most need to halt the ongoing conflict. Moreover, they most need a permanent, stable settlement. That is best achieved with an agreement that addresses the causes of the conflict, particularly Russian security concerns. The West wantonly and recklessly ignored both Russian interests and consequent threats, leaving Ukrainians to pay the price. Staging a repeat while reestablishing peace would be foolish.
Indeed, past efforts to crush opponents economically and impose punitive settlements have not ended well. Neither would the U.S. and Europe treating Russia as a giant North Korea, only with many more nuclear weapons, and access to much of Asia, Africa, and South America, especially since the U.S. and Europe would be no more likely to defend Ukraine in the future than they are now.
Should Ukrainians take a chance on the roll of the dice, and like Dirty Harry, confront Russia and tell it to ask: “Do I feel lucky?” Only the Ukrainians can answer that question.
The government of Russia bears full responsibility for invading Ukraine. However, U.S. and European governments share blame for causing the conflict. Filled with arrogance and self-righteousness, they were determined to treat Moscow of no account. For that, the world is now paying a high price.
The allies should not make a similar mistake at the end of this war. Let them moralize about their inherent goodness and the Kremlin gang’s perfidy. Let them fantasize about Vladimir Putin in the dock at Old Bailey in London or, better yet, before the International Criminal Court in the Hague. Let them rhapsodize about the good they intend to do for the world by extinguishing Russian autocracy. And then let them join with Ukraine, seeking to end this terrible war and create a peace settlement likely to last—which is what the people of Ukraine, Russia, and Europe all desperately require.