Washington also should further open diplomatic channels with Moscow, as appears to be happening, at least to some degree, given reports of CIA Director Bill Burns meeting with his Russian counterpart last week. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin have also engaged with Russia, but such conversations need to be broadened to discuss possible political accommodations.
The U.S. also needs to address the Europeans, especially its most fervent hawks, who tend to be among the most lightly armed. For instance, the Baltic states—small nations with minimal armed forces and niggardly defense efforts for governments claiming to be under imminent threat of conquest—are regarded as the most likely to engage in “freelancing,” as when Lithuania sought to block traffic between Kaliningrad and the rest of Russia. Everyone knew who would be ultimately stuck fighting the war that might result if Moscow’s forces had decided to shoot their way through, and it wasn’t Vilnius.
It is easy to sacrifice someone else’s lives and money, which is essentially what most U.S. “allies” believe is their role in both bilateral and multilateral security partnerships. Washington submissively agrees to defend them, as is its duty; they generously agree to be defended, as is their right. That relationship is no longer sustainable.
At the very least, those seeking to expand or escalate the Russo-Ukrainian war should demonstrate that they are prepared to deal with the consequences, rather than expect to dump the crisis in Washington. Yet much of Europe’s fervor about finally treating security seriously ebbed as the Biden administration rushed troops and materiel to the continent. Even the United Kingdom now plans on reversing course and slashing defense spending, never mind the supposedly enormous threat posed on Europe’s eastern flank. “Once a leech, always a leech,” appears to be Europe’s operating principle.
Operating as Europe’s patsy is a serious problem, even in peace. The U.S. national debt is now above $31 trillion, and the amount held by the public—some of the total reported is meaningless borrowing by Treasury from Social Security—now exceeds 100 percent of GDP. Planned spending will push the US to nearly twice that level by mid-century, assuming no recessions, wars, financial or geopolitical crises, politicized spending sprees, or any other unpleasantness. Even then, the Europeans undoubtedly will expect Americans to pay for their defense.
In addition to those financial costs, the risks of U.S. involvement are far greater with a war ongoing, particularly one in which Washington already is active and into which it could easily be drawn. Many in Washington don’t seem to appreciate that risk, as is evident in the opinion voiced by former U.S. diplomat Alexander Vershbow: “it is ultimately the Ukrainians doing the fighting, so we’ve got to be careful not to second-guess them.”
Kiev’s success has depended on the abundant outside aid it has received. America’s foreign aid should be tailored to American interests, and Washington should rethink what has become an increasingly dangerous almost “all-in” proxy war against Russia. Allied aid should be directed at preserving Ukrainian independence, not defeating Russia, reclaiming Crimea, or imposing regime change in Moscow. The greater allied aid and broader Kiev’s objectives, the more likely the Putin government is to mobilize more resources, reinforce attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, target weapons transfers, and consider nuclear escalation. None of these are in America’s interest.
The U.S. should scale back military aid to Kiev, and especially Europe. The time for the Europeans to take their defense seriously is long overdue. But that will happen only when Washington stops doing everything for them. America’s military remain busy around the world. The Europeans should secure their own continent, relieving the U.S. of at least one needless military responsibility.
Zelensky’s misleading missile gambit reinforces the necessity of a change in course for Washington. He did his best to use his own military’s presumably errant hit to drag NATO into his nation’s war against Russia. There almost certainly will be a next time. The U.S. and its allies should get busy erecting firebreaks to this conflict’s spread.