Lebanon’s death spiral began two years ago. After being pegged to the U.S. dollar at a rate of 1,507.5 for 22 years, the Lebanese pound’s peg broke, and a currency crisis erupted. As the pound plunged — eventually shedding 92 percent of its value against the dollar — inflation surged. In late July 2020, Lebanon became the first country in the Middle East ever to experience a bout of hyperinflation, with the monthly inflation rate hitting 53 per cent. Caught in the midst of the currency storm, banks became insolvent, and the economy collapsed. In a futile attempt to keep a lifeline of imports flowing, the central bank devised a concoction of multiple exchange rates. This massive import subsidy scheme drained over half of the central bank’s foreign-exchange reserves in two short years. What should Mikati do?
He could proceed conventionally by dusting off the government’s April 2020 recovery plan. Its centerpiece was a more flexible exchange-rate regime coupled with capital controls and foreign loans accompanied by conditionality. But when introduced during currency crises in countries that suffer from weak institutions and endemic anomie, such systems have a poor record. In Lebanon, failure would be guaranteed, mirroring Argentina’s recent experiences.
The only option that would bring Lebanon’s currency crisis to an abrupt halt is a currency board. Unlike Lebanon’s old pegged exchange-rate regime or Argentina’s similar ill-fated Convertibility System, which lasted from 1991 until it collapsed in 2001, a currency board issues notes and coins convertible on demand into a foreign anchor currency at a fixed rate of exchange. It is required to hold anchor-currency reserves equal to 100 percent of its monetary liabilities.
A currency board has no discretionary monetary powers and cannot issue credit. It has an exchange-rate policy but no monetary policy. Its sole function is to exchange the domestic currency it issues for an anchor currency at a fixed rate. A currency board’s currency is a clone of its anchor currency.