Barbie and her plastic peers have become the latest casualties of the ongoing trade war.
Recently, President Donald Trump said that children in the United States might only be able to get “two dolls instead of 30” because of rising prices due to tariffs, shrugging off the loss to America’s children as a trivial sacrifice. As a mother of three, including a 6‑year-old daughter who loves dolls, I’m dismayed.
The New York Post summed up the new policy of toybox austerity with the witty headline: “Skimp on the Barbie.” The Washington Post called it a “war on dolls.” USA Today ran a parody piece arguing in favor of fewer toys: “For years now, I’ve believed America’s ungrateful children deserve, at most, three dolls … Anything more spoils the little wretches and makes them happy.”
If you have ever seen a child’s face light up upon receiving a new toy, you know that these trinkets do indeed make them happy. Each time my 3‑year-old son gets a new toy truck, his delight fills the room.
I have lost track of how many Barbies my daughter has, as some live at her grandmother’s house, but it brings her joy to have so many of them, all of them with their own personalities and professions
One of the Barbies is an entomologist, a scientist who studies insects. One is a soccer player. One is a photojournalist. Another is a nurse. Yet another is a politician (hopefully not a tariff fan). And several more with different occupations fill her toyboxes and litter my floors. My daughter creates elaborate and ever-changing stories with them depending on where her imagination takes her.
But toy store shelves may soon look emptier. A recent survey from the association representing the American toy industry found that more than 40% of U.S. toy companies expect to go out of business in the coming months because of the 145% tariff on Chinese imports instated in April. (A few days ago a deal was struck to temporarily lower tariffs on China from 145% to 30% for 90 days, and negotiations are ongoing.)
Republican Ohio Rep. David Joyce, for one, didn’t seem concerned at the risk of lower toy production. “I think the American people will understand that because the American people understand shared sacrifice.” Small children can’t spell, let alone understand, “shared sacrifice.”
We should be celebrating the fact that toys have become increasingly affordable over the years – with families able to provide more to their children – rather than making them harder to obtain. The first Barbie doll, which debuted in 1959, sold for $3. Today, the cheaper Barbies on Amazon are around $8, and they occasionally go on sale for less. That is a nominal price increase of 167%. Yet the nominal wage of a blue-collar worker in the United States has grown by over 1,400%. As a result, the amount of time that average people must spend working to save up enough to buy their children a Barbie has fallen by 83%, from well over an hour to just over 12 minutes. If you shop at Walmart, where some Barbies are less than $6, you can buy 7.15 Barbies for the “time price” of a single Barbie in 1959.
Mattel, the company behind Barbie, produces dolls cheaply partly because of its international supply chain and partly because it faced a tariff rate of zero on Barbie-related imports prior to the recent policy changes. The company has since announced that tariff-induced price hikes are forthcoming. As my colleague Scott Lincicome pointed out, “Apply that same ‘doll tax’ to food, clothing, shoes, home goods, medicine and other daily necessities, and you’ll quickly see why the burden of new, higher prices” adds up for the average family.
This is about much more than toys. But the loss of abundant toys shouldn’t be discounted.
For most of history, toys were a luxury, and children made do without them or with homemade dolls improvised from rags and cornhusks. It wasn’t until the late 17th century that philosopher John Locke helped popularize the idea that children should have toys to help them learn and bring them joy. He introduced the idea of alphabet blocks, “Locke’s Blocks.” They were first only available to the children of the rich. Today, a set costs less than $5.
Even children in modest homes now often own many toys. We live in a world of such amazing abundance that decluttering gurus like Marie Kondo help people to identify and give away the belongings that no longer “spark joy” in their hearts. Toys spark joy in the littlest of hearts.
Tariffs will make us poorer – both in our pocketbooks and in our children’s dimmed smiles. Children do not care about trade balances, but they do care about cherished birthday presents, holiday surprises and the wonder of building imaginary worlds with a $7 piece of plastic.
In his inaugural address, the president claimed, “To every parent who dreams for their child and every child who dreams for their future, I am with you, I will fight for you, and I will win for you. We’re going to win like never before.” Taking toys from children is not winning.