Last month, President Trump reiterated his plan to allow up to 600,000 Chinese students to study at U.S. universities. “I actually think it’s good to have outside countries,” he said in a Fox News interview. “I want to be able to get along with the world.” He also noted that having foreign students, who often pay full freight, is economically beneficial for the country. “It’s not that I want them, but I view it as a business,” he said.

But it turns out business is suffering. A recent report shows that new international student enrollment has declined 17 percent between the last school year and the current one.

What if such a loss were to continue in subsequent years? How would a 17-percent decrease in total international enrollment impact the financial bottom line?

A rough calculation using publicly available data helps put the financial stakes in perspective. To estimate, we assume international students pay the full cost of tuition, fees, room, and board themselves or with the help of their governments. We use federal data on the types of degree programs in which international students are enrolled, and assume they attend public and private institutions in the same proportions as U.S. students. Among private institutions, we assume they only attend nonprofits. We use data from the College Board to calculate tuition for four-year undergraduate students, and apply non-district tuition prices for associate degrees.

Unfortunately, there does not appear to be comprehensive national data on in-state versus out-of-state graduate-school prices. In an effort to better reflect what international students would pay, we adjust the average graduate in-state tuition price, as reported in the most recent federal data, to 2025 dollars, and to reflect the percentage difference between in-state and out-of-state undergrad prices.

We find based on these assumptions that a 17 percent decline in total international students would cost the U.S. economy about $18 billion. Such a loss would hurt the financial stability of universities and lead to higher costs for domestic students. Concerning the latter, some research suggests the international students’ tuition helps subsidize in-state students.

A reduced international presence would also widen the existing gap in STEM talent, as foreign students make up a large share of degree seekers in these fields. Indeed, some research shows that universities increase overall enrollment when they attract more international students, meaning their presence tends to expand opportunities for American students rather than limit them.

Using the same financial assumptions as above, an additional 600,000 Chinese students would contribute about $43 billion to the U.S. economy. And this estimate does not account for the many talented students who would remain in the United States after graduation, where they would join the workforce, pay taxes and bolster our global competitiveness. Indeed, according to the American Immigration Council, nearly half of Fortune 500 companies in 2025 were founded by immigrants or their children.

Another way of looking at the economic benefits of welcoming foreign students is that it aligns with Trump’s stated goal of reducing trade deficits: the United States maintains a surplus in international education, bringing in more than 1 million foreign students while sending only about 406,000 Americans abroad. And as higher education faces long-term decline in college-aged Americans, increasing foreign students can fill empty seats.

Alas, travel bans, restrictions based on social media posts, and other unpredictable policies threaten all of this. They create uncertainty and push prospective students toward countries with more stable and transparent admissions processes.

International students make significant contributions to the U.S. economy, its universities and its global competitiveness. Continued declines in total enrollment would mean billions in lost revenue, reduced opportunities for domestic students, and knowledge gaps in critical fields. Conversely, welcoming large numbers of Chinese and other foreign students would generate immediate economic benefits and strengthen American research, innovation and its global standing.

On this point, the evidence is clear: Foreign students are good not just for universities but the entire country.