Although the two sides are still talking, the U.S. and its allies have declared Putin’s clearest red line, Ukraine’s exclusion from NATO, to be nonnegotiable. Said Secretary of State Antony Blinken: “We make clear that there are core principles that we are committed to uphold and defend—including Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and the right of states to choose their own security arrangements and alliances.” Ominously, Putin dismissed the administration’s position: “The principal Russian concerns turned out to be ignored.” Absent diplomatic concessions, he is likely to take military action of some sort to justify his brinkmanship. The potential consequences range between awful and disastrous, including for Russia.
Blinken claimed to act on principle, but his comment was sanctimonious cant. No country has a right to join NATO. Rather, Article 10 provides: “The Parties may, by unanimous agreement, invite any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area to accede to this Treaty.” Existing members have no obligation to add any state; Ukraine’s inclusion would degrade, not enhance, regional security; and there is virtually no support within the alliance for Kyiv to join in the foreseeable future. Blinken’s defense of a theoretical and nonexistent principle could yield a European war. This is precisely the moment for appeasement.
Until the 1938 Munich conference appeasement, addressing the grievances and demands of others was a respected diplomatic tool. Afterward, however, the idea brought to mind British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain waving his letter from “Herr Hitler.” In fact, a better historical test of appeasement would be World War I.
On June 28, 1914, a Serbian terrorist, armed by his government’s head of military intelligence, murdered the heir to the Hapsburg monarchy, which ruled over the ramshackle Austro-Hungarian Empire. Vienna was determined to punish Belgrade. Imagine how Americans would react if another nation dispatched armed agents to murder the vice president and destabilize the country.
Alas, no one was inclined to compromise, expecting the other side to back down. Momentum for war accelerated. “Things are out of control and the stone has started to roll,” observed German Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg in late July. Days later troops began marching across Europe and ultimately well beyond.
Looking back, perhaps the most striking feature of what was originally called the Great War was its utter lack of purpose. If only the statesmen of the time, by-and-large myopic rather than malevolent, had been able to peer into the future. They almost certainly would have made a deal. And there were many compromises that could have prevented what became the prelude to World War II.
Tragically, Hitler could not be appeased, but no one realized that before Munich’s aftermath. Western statesmen were used to dealing with authoritarians like Benito Mussolini, Francisco Franco, and Jozef Pilsudski, for instance. Britain and France sought an alliance with the Soviet Union’s Joseph Stalin before he made his pact with Hitler—which the former kept even as invading German troops moved eastward. Hitler turned out to be sui generis.
Vladimir Putin is no friend of liberty, but he also is no Hitler reincarnate. When Putin took over as president two decades ago he showed no animus toward the U.S. After 9/11 he offered Russia’s support for American anti-terrorism efforts. Moscow also provided logistical support for U.S. operations in Afghanistan.
His comment on the tragedy of the USSR’s collapse presaged no Hitlerian campaign of aggression, but instead reflected the reality felt by many if not most Russians, whose living standards and national pride suffered from their country’s dissolution. Most important, until the war with Georgia in 2008 Washington had little complaint with Russian behavior, beyond its own borders, at least. Since then, Putin’s predation has been modest—annexation of Crimea, which was historically part of Russia and backed by residents, and influence over but not possession of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and the Donbass. This is a sorry list of acquisitions for any wannabe conqueror. Putin is a dangerous but controlled predator, someone with whom the U.S. can deal.
Nevertheless, the idea of making an agreement with Moscow sets off wailing and gnashing of teeth in Washington. For instance, Eric S. Edelman and David J. Kramer, at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and George W. Bush Institute, respectively, claimed: