Woolsey Makes Predictions

Former CIA Director James Woolsey has surfaced recently to declare that it’s time to get serious about bombing Iran, and predicting terror attacks on the United States this summer or fall. Woolsey made an appearance on the Newsmax website last week, noting

“I think the threat of a serious attack in the next few months is very real.” A terrorist strike with a dirty bomb or with biological weapons was “a real possibility.”

And last night, Woolsey popped in to chat with Lou Dobbs, where he made the shocking prediction that

I’m afraid within, well, at worst, a few months; at best, a few years; [the Iranians] could have a bomb.

There were some weird commonalities to these appearances, almost as if Woolsey had prepared remarks. (Both interviews, for example, featured the Woolsey riff that “the Persians invented chess. They’re good at it. Their most valuable piece, their ‘queen’ really, is their nuclear weapons program.” Both appearances also feature this: “I agree with John McCain. Force is the worst option except for one. And that is allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”)

While both of these substantive predictions are alarming, they have the benefit of being clear and falsifiable. Like the prediction Woolsey made in 1993 as the Director of Central Intelligence, for instance:

“February 24, 1993: CIA director James Woolsey says that Iran is still 8 to 10 years away from being able to produce its own nuclear weapon, but with assistance from abroad it could become a nuclear power earlier.”

God forbid we’re attacked or the Iranians get a bomb–let alone before the end of the year. What would be helpful, though, was if we had a predictions market so that we could put odds on these sorts of predictions and follow up to determine who knows what he’s talking about.

Equal Justice?

Mary Winkler is out of jail. She served 67 days after her conviction for shooting her husband in the back as he lay in bed and killing him. Now she’ll go back to work at the dry cleaners in McMinnville, Tennessee, and seek to regain custody of her children.

Meanwhile, Will Foster was sentenced to 93 years for using marijuana to relieve the pain of his acute rheumatoid arthritis. An appeals court reduced the sentence to 20 years, and Gov. Frank Keating made him serve more than four years before granting him parole.

A few miles from Mary Winkler in Tennessee, 57-year-old Bernie Ellis has been confined for the past 18 months to a halfway house. His crime? Growing marijuana to treat a degenerative condition in his hips and spine. A public health epidemiologist specializing in substance abuse, he also provided pot to some other sick people.  10 officers of the Tennessee Marijuana Eradication Task Force swooped in to put a stop to that, and to try to seize his farm as well.

In a more just world, Tennessee would set up a Murder Eradication Task Force, leave Bernie Ellis alone, and give Mary Winkler a tad more than 67 days for shooting her husband to death.

He Who Pays the Sociologist Calls the Tune

Sociologists from around the country have gathered for the annual American Sociological Association conference, and apparently they’re running scared. At least, according to an article appearing in Inside Higher Ed, many are running from research described best using such words as “sex” and “incestuous.” Apparently, having such words in the description of one’s research has been known to draw the ire of conservative activists, and has occasionally placed National Institutes of Health funding in jeopardy.

The problem, of course, is that as much as sociologists might love free money, NIH funding ultimately comes from taxpayers, and – surprise! – some taxpayers actually want a say in how their money is used. And, no, just because someone’s a scientist doesn’t give him the right to do whatever he wants with someone else’s hard-earned ducats. Of course, it can be very hard to examine really controversial issues if everyone gets a say in what you’re doing and how you’re doing it.

Which leads to the only logical solution to the problem: If social science work – or any controversial scientific work, for that matter – is going to be done right, it cannot be conducted through the wallets of taxpayers. Just as scientists need the consent of human subjects to conduct experiments on them, they must have the consent of their funders if they want to be left alone. Which leaves sociologists with an important decision to make: Do they want to conduct science free of political interference, or sell out for the promise of abundant government grants? Unfortunately, right now the latter seems to be the more popular choice.

Grover Norquist & Co. Join the Anti-Universal Coverage Club

Here’s an excerpt from the Americans for Tax Reform blog:

Many debates in health care over the last decade (or five) have focused on the best way to universally insure all Americans.

The Left believes in a single-payer health care system where all Americans are covered by a single government health care plan.

The Center-Left believes in some combination of socialized medicine and heavily government-subsidized private sector health care.

The broad Center-Right coalition believes in individual choice and control, in particular via use of health savings accounts (HSAs).

But maybe we’re getting the question wrong.

Siding with Governments over People, Pope Criticizes Tax Havens

It is rather disappointing that so many religious figures think that compassion should be a function of the state and that bigger government is good for the less fortunate. This approach not only undermines personal responsibility, but it also is anti-empirical because of the ever-growing body of evidence showing that high tax rates and excessive spending hinder growth and thus make it harder for poor people to climb the economic ladder.

Notwithstanding this real-world evidence, the UK-based Times reports that the Pope is about to attack tax havens as part of broader call for more redistribution. Not surprisingly, Italy’s Prime Minster is delighted that his nation’s taxpayers are being told to behave like sheep:

In his second encyclical – the most authoritative statement a pope can issue – the pontiff will denounce the use of “tax havens” and offshore bank accounts by wealthy individuals, since this reduces tax revenues for the benefit of society as a whole. …In it the pontiff focused on “those peoples who are striving to escape from hunger, misery, endemic diseases and ignorance and are looking for a wider share in the benefits of civilisation”. He called on the West to promote an equitable world economic system based on social justice rather than profit. …[Italian Prime Minister] Mr Prodi asked, adding: “If memory serves, St Paul exhorted the faithful to obey authority.”

IMF Wants Higher Taxes in Japan

The International Monetary Fund is urging higher taxes in Japan, though this is not exactly newsworthy since the IMF routinely endorses higher taxes in its country reports (Article IV consultations). To be fair, the IMF does say that it would be a good idea to control spending. And the international bureaucracy wants taxes to be raised in a less-destructive manner. Nonetheless, the notion that Japan will be more prosperous with a higher tax burden (which would be used to finance a bigger government) is rather fanciful. Tax-news.com reports:

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week published the conclusions reached by its assessment team during the recently completed Article IV consultation with Japan. …The Article IV report continued: “Most Directors considered that given the size of the task at hand, additional revenue measures will be needed, including for base broadening. They indicated that revenue measures could be best identified in the context of a broad reform of the tax system that addresses the challenges posed by Japan’s aging society and globalization. Among possible measures, increasing the consumption tax has the benefit of being less detrimental to growth and equitable across generations. Some Directors, however, viewed the authorities’ focus on expenditure adjustments as broadly appropriate at this juncture.”

This story, which is so similar to hundreds of other reports on IMF-endorsed tax hikes, raises an interesting question: Does anybody know if the IMF has ever recommended that a country reduce its tax burden?

Bush: The Biggest Taxer in World History

The Treasury Department reported Friday that federal revenues reached $2.12 trillion ($2,120,000,000,0000) for the first ten months of fiscal year 2007. In both current and inflation-adjusted dollars, that puts the federal government on course for the most revenue it’s ever collected in a year. Indeed, it’s the most revenue any government in the history of the world has ever collected. And yet it’s not enough to satisfy the voracious appetites of the spenders in Congress and the administration. Spending was $2.27 trillion for the same ten months.

It seems that the deficit problem in Washington is not a result of insufficient tax revenue but rather the inexorable growth of spending on everything from earmarks to entitlements to war.

To be sure, the U.S. economy is the largest national economy in history, and that’s the main reason for record tax levels. And tax revenues are not at their peak in terms of percentage of GDP–though they’re getting close. Earlier in the year OMB estimated that revenues as a percentage of GDP would reach 18.5 percent in 2007. But as of a month ago that figure had reached 18.8 percent, approaching the levels that typically produce popular demand for relief. But as spending interests become stronger and more widespread in Washington, popular demand for lower taxes faces more resistance. It seems safe to conclude that George W. Bush will go down in history as the biggest taxer and the biggest spender ever.