Events

Join us for a non-technical primer on risk and cost-benefit analysis with applications to policies ranging from homeland security to climate change. Our panel will consider key issues as probability neglect, cost neglect, and acceptable risk. In general, the place to begin is not with the perennial question, “Are we safer?” but rather with the rarely asked, “How safe are we?” Increases in domestic homeland security spending since 9/11 exceed $1 trillion. How many post-9/11 security programs reduce risk enough to justify their cost? Panelists John Mueller and Mark Stewart are the authors of Terror, Security, and Money (Oxford University Press, 2011).

The OPEC cartel has been the key actor in world crude oil markets for four decades and counting. Even so, there is a surprising amount of disagreement about the nature of OPEC’s influence on oil markets.

In a new study published by Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE), authors Andrew Morriss and Roger Meiners survey the academic literature and conclude that OPEC is an unstable cartel that has, at times, been effective in significantly increasing the price of oil. When the cartel has failed in this exercise, however, the price of oil has collapsed, possibly lower than would have been the case were the market not subject to cartelization. Morriss and Meiners believe that much of the volatility that characterizes world crude oil markets can be laid at the cartel’s doorstep and, as a consequence, “the international market for oil is not a free market.” Fred Smith will discuss the policy implications of Morriss and Meiners’ findings. James Smith, who has written extensively on the OPEC cartel, will comment.

On February 4, 2013, NBC News obtained a confidential Justice Department white paper detailing the Obama administration’s legal justification for the targeted killing of American citizens abroad. The leak called attention to a discernible shift in the “War on Terror” and how America wages it. The U.S. government has yet to disclose the number of drone strikes launched, the number of people killed, and the full scope of collateral damage. How does the U.S. government determine who is a legitimate target and who poses an immediate threat? What are the constitutional issues surrounding targeted killings, given their secrecy and the lack of reliable data? What standards do decisionmakers apply for deciding if the costs outweigh the benefits in a given country? What are the practical issues of such highly classified programs in an age of worldwide, and seemingly perpetual, war? Join us for what should be a fascinating discussion on a highly important topic.