Bring China and Its Neighbors under the INF Missile Treaty

As U.S. relations with Russia go from bad to worse, even old agreements seem at risk.  Such as the INF (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces) Treaty.

The 1987 pact essentially cleared Europe of mid-range missiles (between 500 and 5500 kilometers).  But the State Department recently charged Moscow with violating the treaty.

The INF treaty has been to America’s advantage, since it does not cover U.S. military allies, such as Britain and France.  Even more important, the U.S. has no potentially hostile neighbors with such a capability, while Russia faces China, India, Iran, North Korea, and Pakistan.

Moscow officials have suggested that they may leave the agreement at some point.  To forestall that possibility the U.S. and Moscow should seek to include China and other regional powers in the pact.   

Although relations between Moscow and Washington obviously are strained, the U.S. should approach Russia about amending the INF Treaty to allow deployments in Asia, unless otherwise agreed.  The two governments should simultaneously propose that Beijing and its neighbors accede to the pact. 

Admittedly, winning signatures from other nations, especially China, would not be easy. The PRC believes its short- and medium-range missiles serve a significant security role. 

However, the PRC’s more aggressive approach to Asia-Pacific territorial issues has antagonized neighboring states.  Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, in particular, are likely to become increasingly interested in developing countervailing missile capabilities. 

In the future the PRC may face a plethora of countervailing weapons deployed by several states. Then Beijing might view a ban as more to its liking. 

Negotiations over expanding the INF Treaty would make Beijing a full global partner on arms control, recognizing the country’s rising international status.  Although the PRC has tended to view such limits as a means of maintaining U.S. “hegemony,” Washington could suggest accession as the best means to forestall any further increase in U.S. military presence in the region as part of the famed “pivot” or “rebalance.” 

Some analysts instead advocate responding to the PRC’s military build-up by withdrawing from the pact and introducing comparable missiles.  As an alternative, David W. Kearn, Jr. of St. John’s University suggested enhancing U.S. offensive capabilities in the region and defensive responses to missile attacks. 

However, as I point out in China-US focus, “nearby nations should be responsible for maintaining regional security.  American policymakers should use expansion of the INF Treaty as a means to reduce U.S. defense obligations.”

China’s growing missile force challenges America’s dominance in Asia—most directly the ability to project power—not America’s survival at home.  The most likely contingency is an attack on Taiwan, which is quite different from a strike on the U.S.  The Cold War justification for America’s extensive military presence in the region has disappeared.

America’s friends and neighbors, no less than China, have prospered and are able to defend themselves.  That obviously is best for the U.S., since Beijing will always have an incentive to spend and risk more in its own neighborhood than will America. 

Restricting Washington’s role also would reduce the potential for a superpower confrontation over less than vital interests.  Ironically, America’s conventional superiority inflates the danger of a great power confrontation.  Explained Kearn:  “in a crisis or a conflict, regional adversaries may have incentives to escalate (or threaten escalation) against U.S. forces in the region or U.S. allies to de-escalate the crisis and ensure regime survival once the United States has become involved.”

Expanding the INF Treaty to Asia would help reduce growing military tensions and dampen geopolitical competition, especially over territorial issues.  Achieving this end won’t be easy, but it is an area where the U.S. and Russia can cooperate.  While China might initially be wary of joining such an effort, a new arms control regime would ultimately offer Beijing significant benefits as well.

Today in Cato’s Growth Forum

There are five new essays today in the Cato Institute’s online growth forum:

1. Ryan Avent argues against restrictive zoning.

2. Jagadeesh Gokhale makes the case for tax and entitlement reforms.

3. Michael Strain wants to put America back to work.

4. Karl Smith thinks about how to counter slowing labor force growth.

5. Robin Hanson calls for the meta-policy of decision markets.

Video: The Fate of Our World

The state of the world is improving. Child mortality, poverty, and violence are declining, while life expectancy, incomes, and education are increasing. While many problems remain, most indicators of human well-being are trending in the right direction—especially in the developing world.

If you are interested in a realistic look at the state of humanity, then I highly recommend that you watch this video:

Learn more.

You Ought to Have a Look: The Weather According to Maue, Comments on EPA Power Plant Rules, the Government Bogarts the Weed

You Ought to Have a Look is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science posted by Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger.  While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic.  Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. Knappenberger

One of the planet’s most prolific weather and climate Tweeters is Florida State PhD and WeatherBell wizard Dr. Ryan Maue (rhymes with zowie). Ryan’s initial claim to fame was his analysis of tropical cyclone (e.g., hurricane) activity that shows, over the past 45 years, lots of variability but no overall change.  Originally published in 2009, it flies in the face of global warming doomsayers who predict increases in all manner of extreme weather events including hurricanes and their tropical brethren. As a young scientist, going against the grain is not typically a good career move (which is why the global warming establishment is self-perpetuating), but Ryan is driven more by the truth than by political correctness. In fact, political correctness is an antonym of Ryan.

He has risen to prominence as the creator of the amazing analyses and graphics produced by the private weather forecasting firm WeatherBell Analytics. Many of these products find their way onto Ryan’s Twitter page along with some insightful (and often witty) commentary. His analysis of current weather events is unparalleled. If you’ve heard of the “polar vortex,” you can thank (or blame) Ryan: he first popularized this arcane professional term last winter.

This past week he has been active, covering the humongous lake-effect snows burying parts of greater Buffalo, the cold outbreak setting all-time monthly low temperature records in the Eastern United States, and pushing back against the growing tide of media that so desperately wants to link it all to global warming.

From our standpoint, Ryan is one of the best young weather/climate guys out there. If you don’t want to limit yourself to only encountering  Ryan’s analysis on the Drudge Report (which actually isn’t too limiting since his work is frequently featured there), then you ought to have a look for him on Twitter and become another of his more than 13,000 followers. To tune in to Ryan telling it like it is, check out @RyanMaue.

How Hot Does It Have to Be to Break a Record?

So who hasn’t seen one of the bajillion recent stories saying 2014 is going to set the instrumental record for the highest average global surface temperature? May we throw a teense of cold water on that hot news?

Annual temperatures are calculated by averaging up monthly readings, so the last data point that we have is October. The National Climatic Data Center, a part of the Department of Commerce, estimates that global average temperature was a record high of 58.46°F. The previous record was 58.45°.

The key word is “estimates.” When a scientist measures something—with a ruler, a scale, or a thermometer, for example—there’s always a measurement error owing to properties of the measuring device or even the skill of the scientist. When it comes to global temperature, scientists are averaging data from over a thousand thermometers scattered about the planet. Some are well-taken care of, and some are not. Some may have traces of urban warming in them. Nor is the number of readings exactly the same from year to year, or even from month to month.

The result is that there is a central estimate (58.46°) and a 95% confidence range as to where the “true” value lies. 

The most recent and most transparent error analysis of global temperatures has been done by a group called Berkeley Earth. For October, they find that the 95% confidence range is 0.10°F, or +/- 0.05°.

So, using the normal rules of science, is 58.46° then distinguishable from 58.45°? In a word, “NO.”

Iran’s Economy, With and Without a P5+1 Agreement

The haggling between Iran and the so-called P5+1—the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, plus Germany—is scheduled to come to a close on Monday, November 24th. The two parties each want different things. One thing that Iran would like is the removal of the economic sanctions imposed on it by the United States and its allies.

After decades of wrongheaded economic policies, Iran’s economy is in terrible shape. The authoritative Economic Freedom of the World: 2014 Annual Report puts Iran near the bottom of the barrel: 147th out of the 152 countries ranked. And the “World Misery Index Scores” rank Iran as the fourth most miserable economy in the world. In addition to economic mismanagement, economic sanctions and now-plunging oil prices are dragging Iran’s structurally distorted economy down. So, it’s no surprise that Iran would like one of the weights (read: sanctions) on its economy lifted.

Just how important would the removal of sanctions be? To answer that question, we use the Institute of International Finance’s detailed macroeconomic framework. The results of our analysis are shown in the table and charts below the jump.

Pages