A Common Core Buyer’s Too Late Remorse

E.D. Hirsch—author of the lightning rod Cultural Literacy: What Every American Needs to Know, and a tireless advocate of content-heavy education—has just spoken truth about the Common Core. An Education Week article heralding his latest book reports that:

He calls the reading standards “empty” and “deeply flawed” because they teach all-purpose reading-comprehension strategies rather than facts and information. An entire chapter of his new book is devoted to what he refers to as “the tribulations of the common core.”

“The people who developed the common core had a choice. Either [the standards] were going to be educationally correct or they were going to be politically viable,” he said. “They chose the second.” Forty-six states agreed to adopt the standards right away, which he argues “could only be accomplished if you didn’t specify the content of the curriculum.”

The Core is indeed very light on content in English language arts, Hirsch’s primary concern. But it hasn’t changed between 2010 and today, yet Hirsch endorsed it—emphatically!—in 2013.

As I have pointed out, Hirsch’s endorsement is one of many pieces of Core support that have sewn major confusion about the Core, befuddlement that supporters have loved to pin on opponents. But the reality is that Core supporters, seemingly obsessed with getting standards nationalized, have tried to make the Core sound like all things to all people: national and comprehensive, locally controlled and minimalist. Couple that with federal coercion, and the Core has thrown schools nationwide into utterly avoidable disarray.

But there is a deeper reality illustrated here: It is very difficult, short of a dictatorship, to impose content both deep and broad on diverse people. Why? Because diverse people will not agree on what that content should be. Just evolution, or also intelligent design? The Bible, or I Am Jazz? Ethnic studies, or commonality? And the list goes on…and on. This is precisely why for the Core to be “politically viable” it had to be largely bereft of what Hirsch has spent decades crusading for: rich content.

If you want deep, robust content, the way to get it is the opposite of nationalization: educational freedom.

Fiscal Choices in the Election

An upcoming Cato event examines whether or not you should vote in the election. If you decide to go ahead with it, National Taxpayers Union (NTU) has resources to you help assess the fiscal issues at stake.

Regarding your choice for president, NTU has tallied the spending promises of Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and Gary Johnson. Clinton has proposed dozens of spending increases and a few cuts, which add up to a net $203 billion a year in higher spending. Trump’s promises add up to a net $20 billion a year in higher spending.

By contrast, Johnson is promising to save us money. NTU calculates that his net spending cuts would be $143 billion a year. Such reforms would be a good start, but less than my proposed cuts of $1.2 trillion a year.

If you don’t plan on voting for president, or any politician this year, another useful NTU guide describes other important issues at stake on state ballots. Here are a few highlights:

  • Marijuana legalization (and taxation) for recreational use is on the ballot in five states: Arizona, California, Maine, Massachusetts, and Nevada.
  • Tobacco tax increases are on the ballot in four states. My governor’s report noted that a dozen states have enacted tobacco tax hikes just since 2014. In the minds of some politicians, smokers are “deplorables,” so it is easy to target them.
  • New taxes on sugary drinks are on the ballot in a number of local jurisdictions. Cola drinkers are becoming a new class of deplorables.
  • Voters will decide on bond issues in many places. One statewide California proposition would authorize $9 billion in debt to fund schools and colleges. My governors report explains why state and local debt issuance is bad policy, even for capital improvements. State and local capital projects should be funded pay-as-you-go. It is cheaper, more transparent, and less conducive to corruption.
  • Coloradans will vote on Amendment 69, “which would create a government-run health care scheme (ColoradoCare) aiming to cover all residents. The amendment includes a $25 billion tax increase … This would nearly double the state’s budget.” Wow, that’s big.
  • Corporate welfare choices are on the ballot in a few places. Voters in Arlington, Texas, will decide on new taxes to fund a $1 billion stadium for MLB’s Texas Rangers. Voters in San Diego will decide on new taxes to fund a football stadium for the NFL’s Chargers.

I don’t know whether or not you should vote for president. But you should check out the NTU guide and www.ballotpedia.org to see what state and local issues you will be able to weigh in on.

Muslims Rapidly Adopt U.S. Social Values

Concerns about Muslim assimilation made news again this week when Donald Trump erroneously claimed that U.S. Muslim neighbors failed to report the San Bernardino shooters. But this persistent idea that U.S. Muslims are not assimilating could not be more inaccurate. In fact, U.S. Muslims—81 percent of whom are immigrants or children of immigrants—are the most socially liberal and religiously tolerant in the world and becoming more so with each passing year.

U.S. Muslims Are Adopting Americans’ Liberal Social and Religious Views

More than 80 percent of Muslim Americans are immigrants or the children of immigrants, according to the Pew Research Center’s 2014 survey. The large majority of these are immigrants who arrived since 1990. Figure 1 provides the countries of origin for U.S. Muslim immigrants. The fact that Muslim Americans are dominated by immigrants could lead to the conclusion that the views of Muslim Americans will reflect the views of Muslims worldwide. But this is not the case. They are rapidly adopting American social views and liberalizing their religious views to accommodate.

Figure 1: Countries of Origin for Muslim Immigrants (2014)

Source: Pew (2011)

As an example, the vast majority of Muslims around the world are fiercely opposed to homosexuality. Worldwide, the average country-level support across 39 countries is just 5 percent with 80 percent opposed. Yet as Figure 2 shows, in the United States in 2011, 45 percent of U.S. Muslims considered homosexuality morally acceptable—the highest in the world—compared to 47 percent who did not. While lower than the U.S. public generally, opposition to homosexuality fell 14 percentage points from 2007 to 2014, while acceptance gained 18 percentage points—a 32-point swing in less than a decade.

Alan Reynolds in 1997 on Exchange Rates and Trade

I stumbled on this 1997 talk abut NAFTA by my old friend Roberto Salinas-Leon, making a case for Hillary’s Wikileak dream of Hemispheric free trade (but not for her other dream of “open borders” if that really meant unhindered migration).  

I may be biased, but the following heretofore lost quote from me still seems relevant, but for the U.S. too, not just Mexico. Trump adviser Peter Navarro thinks the dollar is 45% too strong against the Chinese yuan, which supposedly excuses Trump’s threat of a 45% tariff.  (I’m more in the “strong dollar is good for America” camp, though strong doesn’t mean continually rising.) 

As Alan Reynolds has recently explained, “the explicit goal of devaluation is to worsen the terms of trade”-for instance, to make Mexico trade more exports for fewer imports. Reynolds continues: “…even if Mexico wanted to impoverish itself in this way, it does not work. When the peso was devalued at the end of 1994 that did not result in Mexican oil or beer being one cent cheaper in terms of U.S. dollars. After a devaluation, interest rates soar, real tax receipts collapse, and the foreign debt burden increases. This causes a squeeze on the government’s budget, and on the budgets of families, farms and firms. This is no way to make a country “competitive.” Economic growth depends on more and better labor and capital, neither of which are encouraged by a currency of unpredictable value. A weak currency has never produced a strong economy.”

To be sure, concerns surrounding currency revaluation are closely mixed with the fear of generating a substantial trade deficit. Reynolds again explains the misdiagnosis of increased imports as a sign of bad times: “current account deficits have nothing to do with ‘competitiveness.’ They are caused by a gap between investment and domestic savings that is filled by foreign investment (which is good) or loans (which are not so good). To the extent that a devaluation might “fix” such a gap, it does so by slashing investment, not raising savings.”

The Internet Beats the DEA Over Kratom

Many libertarians believe that technology helps protect our freedoms from excessive government.  That seems to have worked in this case:

The Drug Enforcement Administration is reversing a widely criticized decision that would have banned the use of kratom, a plant that researchers say could help mitigate the effects of the opioid epidemic.

Citing the public outcry and a need to obtain more research, the DEA is withdrawing its notice of intent to ban the drug, according to a preliminary document that will be posted to the Federal Register Thursday.

The move is “shocking,” according to John Hudak, who studies drug policy at the Brookings Institution. “The DEA is not one to second-guess itself, no matter what the facts are.”

And if the DEA has really found new religion, it should admit it does not have sufficient research to ban marijuana, heroin, or any other substance!

Farm Subsidy Outlook

An important issue on the plate of the incoming president will be the next farm bill. Current farm programs run through September 2018, and farm bill supporters are already making plans to extend and expand them.

I have posted a new essay on why farm subsidies should be repealed at DownsizingGovernment.org. I describe eight types of farm subsidies and six reasons to repeal them.

The durability of farm programs over the decades encapsulates just about everything that’s wrong with Washington. The programs make no economic or environmental sense. They subsidize higher-income households, including billionaires. They run directly counter to the American ethos of independence and rugged individualism. Farmers should be proud rural businesspeople, but some have become like cattle feeding at a subsidy trough.

Farm programs survive not because they make practical sense, but because Washington’s agenda is controlled by special-interest insiders exploiting a key flaw in our Madisonian system—logrolling. In a recent news story about the next farm bill, a top farm lobbyist basically admits that farm programs don’t have the votes to pass on the merits, so they are packaged in legislation with food subsidy programs to gain the support of urban legislators.

The current farm bill, passed in 2014, is costing more than originally promised, yet farm-state legislators will soon go on “listening tours” to ask farmers how to expand the subsidies even more. Meanwhile, neither of the two main presidential candidates seem interested in reforming the grotesque system.

Nonetheless, there was a lot of talk about Washington corruption and cronyism on the campaign trail over the past year, so maybe the public will get fired up to oppose welfare for the well-to-do in the upcoming farm bill.

See here for more on federal agriculture subsidies.

Read All About It! Heat Dries Things Up!

Global Science Report is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new items in the scientific literature or the popular media. For broader and more technical perspectives, consult our monthly “Current Wisdom.”

No one doubts that much of the West, especially California, has been very droughty since the turn of the century, and that heat and drought are highly correlated. So it seemed surprising that it was big news last week that forest fires, which require dry fuel, are on the increase out there.

University of Idaho’s John Abatzoglou and Columbia’s A. Park Williams used a large family of climate models to calculate various indices of western aridity (they used eight different measures), which were then related to the burned-out area every year. About half of the increase since the mid-1980s was related to climate-modelled warming. The other half, they say, was from other causes, including natural variability. The authors also note that some forest management practices may be contributing to the increasing burn.

The notion that this much drying is caused by dreaded global warming is what made the papers.

Should we use models that can’t even get close to the real-world evolution of lower atmospheric temperatures in recent decades to determine how much climate change is human-caused? That’s what they did—assuming only warming that was not modelled was “natural.” To say the least, that’s a heavy logical lift when it is so clear that the models are predicting far too much warming in the lower layers.

It is all too human to not let some else’s work get in the way of your confirmation bias. So there’s no mention of another explanation for why it’s so hot and dry there. Writing in the same journal that the fire work was published in, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), two other western researchers, James Johnstone and Nathan Mantua, demonstrated that virtually all of the temperature changes in California and the West are related to changes in atmospheric pressure patterns that occur with or without global warming. That was first published in 2014, but there is no reference to it whatsoever in the fire paper. 

Nor is there any reference to the most comprehensive study of western fires—some 33,000 of them—by Argentina’s Thomas Kitzberger showing that for centuries the distribution and frequency of western fires is related to well-known atmospheric patterns over  both the North Pacific and North Atlantic, not global warming. It too was published in PNAS, in 2007.

But we digress. Aridity is largely driven by temperature (warmth) and precipitation. Unfortunately, only two of their eight measures of dryness are very sensitive to rainfall variability.

Climate models have pretty much no skill in estimating precipitation. But they do predict warming, and western (particularly California and Arizona) temperatures are higher than they were. So, absent any precipitation data, they are guaranteed to paint a drying picture and therefore an increase in fire extent.  

The six aridity indicators that are not particularly influenced by precipitation instead are primarily temperature-driven. Not surprisingly, these show much greater increases in aridity than the other two.

Here’s an example from the heavily forested northwest states of Idaho, Washington and Oregon. One of the aridity indicators is the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), an old warhorse that has been used to assess long-term moisture status since it was first published in 1965 by Wayne Palmer, a scientist at the (then) U.S. Weather Bureau.