Topic: Foreign Policy and National Security

Beijing Rising: The New Nation that Is China

I’m in Beijing for a conference organized by the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. We have a short but intensive program, with several American and Chinese scholars as well as Chinese political officials. I just hope I will be semi-conscious, since the 12-hour time difference means a flip of day and night.

As we drove into the city I was reminded how much the country has changed over the last two decades or so since my first trip here.  We flew in on Air China, which is fully competitive with Western airlines. The airport is modern. Some of the passport clerks actually smile.

Once clearing passport control, there are no further barriers to entry. No one questions you as you head out of customs on to your next flight or into the Beijing.  A freeway leads into what looks like a modern city. Colorful advertising showcases Western as well as Chinese products and styles. Kentucky Fried Chicken and Pizza Hut make their appearance.

Some of the office buildings sport their names in English as well as Chinese. We are staying at an older hotel, the Wanshou, which was originally built in 1966 to house foreign guests. It retains the overall feel of old communist construction but has been refurbished, making it quite comfortable. The Wanshou passed my test of serving Diet Coke, but the gym opens at 9—which suggests it doesn’t have a lot of Western guests.

However, quibbles aside, Beijing is a modern city. It was moving in that direction 20 or 25 years ago, but it’s now there.

Perhaps the most dramatic and obvious change is the traffic. Chinese cities once were renowned for their swarms of cyclists, who weaved in and out of what appeared to be constant chaos on the roads. Today the swarms are made up of automobiles. To reduce traffic, Beijing actually bars residents from driving certain days depending on their license plate numbers, but, noted one of my hosts, more Chinese are wealthier and therefore can afford a second car—and thus a second license plate.

Rural China remains poor and underdeveloped, but even that is changing.  China poses a serious geopolitical challenge to America, but it is important to keep two basic factors in mind. 

First, hundreds of millions of people who once would have died in immiserating poverty now enjoy much better lives.  Second, while one should never underestimate the appeal of nationalism, all Chinese now have much at stake in a peaceful regional and global order.  While the future remains uncertain, there are good reasons to hope for, and even expect, a productive and cooperative future.

On to the conference!

Incentives Matter: Even the French Know That

Europe is slowly disarming.  That really isn’t America’s business, but for the traditional expectation that America would fill the gap.  That is ever less likely, however, as budget pressures slow U.S. military expenditures.  Now the French are appear to be ready to do more in response.

European expenditures will continue on a downward path because Europe no longer faces any serious, let alone existential, threats.   European Union leaders might talk about creating a continental foreign policy and military, but European peoples exhibit little interest in paying the resulting bill, especially with the continent in economic crisis. 

This is a prescription for eventual European disarmament, but as I recently pointed out in National Interest online, hope is flickering in France.  I explained:

France’s financial difficulties created pressure for additional cuts in military outlays.  The Hollande government recently released its defense review, known as the Livre Blanc, or White Book.  Although the government reduced its rapid deployment forces, it “opted to keep France’s air, ground and sea capabilities, while freezing defense budgets over six years,” noted the Economist.  Outlays will shrink in real terms and as a percentage of GDP, but “Dark talk of the loss of 50,000 jobs proved unfounded.  The planned yearly cuts will be smaller than under the previous president, Nicolas Sarkozy.  France will maintain its capability for expeditionary warfare, and boost special forces.”

One reason Paris isn’t cutting as much as expected is Gallic pride.  But the French White Book also noted that Americans will “prove more selective in their overseas engagements.”  Thus, France must do more to maintain a global presence.

It’s a small step, but offers an important lesson for U.S. policymakers.  Instead of whining about lower European military outlays, Washington should simply shed the burden of Europe’s defense.  Then let the Europeans decide how to respond and bear the consequences accordingly.

Obama on Perpetual War: Less “Hope,” More Handwringing

There was something almost otherworldly about President Obama’s big national security speech last Tuesday at the National Defense University in DC. At times, Obama seemed to position himself as the loyal opposition to his own administration—or just one of many concerned citizens who worry that perpetual war “will prove self-defeating, and alter our country in troubling ways.” A few examples from the speech:

Look at the current situation [at Gitmo], where we are force-feeding detainees who are being held on a hunger strike…. Is this who we are?  Is that something our Founders foresaw?  Is that the America we want to leave our children? 

***

I’m troubled by the possibility that leak investigations may chill the investigative journalism that holds government accountable.

***

Unless we discipline our thinking, our definitions, our actions, we may be drawn into more wars we don’t need to fight…. this war, like all wars, must end.

***

The very precision of drone strikes and the necessary secrecy often involved in such actions can end up shielding our government from the public scrutiny that a troop deployment invites.  It can also lead a President and his team to view drone strikes as a cure-all for terrorism.

A president”? Anyone in particular? Who’s been president all these years, anyway?

Applying the Fourth Amendment to International Travelers

I regularly cross America’s borders, so I’m happy that a new court ruling will make it harder for border agents to search and seize travelers’ computers.

In 1886, the U.S. Supreme Court essentially exempted border searches from the Fourth Amendment.  Only in the most extreme cases, such as detaining or strip-searching a traveler, is “reasonable suspicion” of criminal conduct necessary.

Only once in decades of travel have I been forced to hand over my computer.  But thousands of other Americans have had to do so over the years, and it is much worse when the government takes the computer for a “forensic” review elsewhere. 

However, in April, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled, in U.S. v. Cotterman, that while a simple search involving a quick review of a laptop likely is constitutional, a more detailed review “transformed [the search] into something far different.”  Thus, “reasonable suspicion” was required.

The dissenters complained about treating differently someone who hid digital child pornography on his computer and “hid” printed child pornography in his briefcase.  But as I pointed out in my new Forbes online column, there are important differences:

One is that international travelers know their belongings are subject to visual search.  A briefcase and printed materials also are inherently less secure against private snoops as well as government investigators than password-protected computer files.

Moreover, as the appellate majority observed, “The amount of private information carried by international travelers was traditionally circumscribed by the size of the traveler’s luggage or automobile.  That is no longer the case.  Electronic devices are capable of storing warehouses full of information.”  While it is easy to separate the business and personal as well as the innocent and incriminating among personal effects, it is not so easy to similarly divide computer files.  Concluded the judges:  “A person’s digital life ought not be hijacked simply by crossing a border.”

Very true.

Of course, Cotterman’s offenses were horrid.  But the court concluded that “Reasonable suspicion is a modest, workable standard that is already applied.”

Catching criminals is important.  However, it is a free society that we are protecting.  Traveling internationally should not require sacrificing one’s basic freedoms.

Pakistan: Will the Third Time as Prime Minister be the Charm for Nawaz Sharif?

Pakistan always has been a good example of being careful for what one wishes when it comes to democracy in Third World nations. The Pakistani people theoretically rule the unstable nuclear state. Whether that actually is positive is not so clear.

In the latest election, Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz won a strong plurality, making him the almost certain prime minister. However, that position may be a poisoned chalice. When he was last premier, for the second time, in 1999, he found himself ousted in a coup, imprisoned for months, and eventually bundled into exile.

Despite the relatively free (though violence-laden) vote, Pakistan’s political, economic, and security problems are enormous. And the dangers of a failed state reach well beyond Pakistan’s borders. As I wrote in my latest Forbes online column:

for those who worry about an Islamic Bomb in Tehran, one already exists in Islamabad. Pakistan has between 90 and 120 warheads, and is producing more plutonium than any other nation on earth. The result likely will be an expanded arsenal. Observed Tom Hundley of the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting: “Pakistan could end up in third place, behind Russia and the United States, within a decade.” Yet the contest with India has left Islamabad officials “hobbled by fear, paranoia, and a deep sense of inferiority,” in Hundley’s words. At the same time, Pakistan has increasingly dispersed its warheads to frustrate any U.S. attempt to seize the weapons. The practice increases the possibility of radicals grabbing a warhead or fissile material.

Oh joy.

Although only the Pakistani people can fix their own country, Washington could help. It should wind down the war in Afghanistan, which is a destabilizing force in Pakistan. The U.S. should reduce its use of drones, which have made America hated by Pakistanis. Washington should resist the temptation to dump ever more foreign “aid” into the corrupt and incompetent institution known as the Pakistani government. Finally, Americans should hope—and pray!—that Nawaz Sharif has learned something during his 14 years in the political wilderness.

Cultural Sensitivity or Surrender?

One of the most important lessons one learns from traveling abroad is to be culturally sensitive. A self-professed sophisticate like myself would never want to be considered to be the prototypical “Ugly American.”

Yet as I’m visiting the Persian Gulf kingdom of Qatar I’ve been thinking about who gets to decide on culture.

Most of us believe that certain practices are beyond the bounds of tolerance. Consider the Indian practice of suttee—the burning of widows—which Britain banned. Set aside whether the British government should have shown up with soldiers, guns, and warships and claimed the Indian subcontinent as its own; once there, surely it was right to forbid murder.

In a story that may be apocryphal but should be true even if not, an Indian complained to a British colonial official that it was tradition to burn widows on their deceased husbands’ funeral pyres. The official replied, according to the story, that it was British tradition to execute those who burned widows on their deceased husbands’ funeral pyres.

Of course, nothing like suttee is going on in Qatar. Indeed, as Muslim societies go, it is a pretty liberal place. Observance of conservative Islamic tenets is routine but often not deeply held. Some younger Qatar citizens (and TV cameramen!) look a lot like their Western counterparts. I wasn’t the only person on my flight to arrive wearing shorts. Hotels that cater to Westerners serve alcohol and provide Western television stations. Men and women use the gym together.

Still, visitors are warned to be sensitive, especially of dress. People should be modest in all circumstances. Shorts are tolerated, but should hit the knee. Shoulders should be covered.

President’s Drone Speech: Good on Rhetoric, Bad on Policy

President Obama’s Tuesday speech was intended to convey that he is taking a more measured approach to counterterrorism, reducing drone strikes and moving toward closure of Guantanamo Bay.

In many ways, the speech is excellent. The president’s effort to put the terrorism threat in context and his argument that the war cannot be unlimited and unending are praiseworthy, as is his mention of ultimately repealing the Authorization for Use of Military Force.

That said, he still claims almost unlimited war powers based on secret legal reasoning. He still has not told us what countries and groups he claims authority to attack in the name of counterterrorism, or his administration’s legal rationale for doing so.

Members of Congress should not rest on the president’s assurance that they have been “briefed on every military action.” Presidents rarely restrain themselves. Congress should limit the president’s power to kill and detain suspected terrorists, starting by providing the legal end date for the war justifying those powers.

Although the President didn’t mention it in the speech, a big policy change accompanying it is likely to be that the standard now governing drone strikes against U.S. citizens will apply to everyone. Reports hold that this new secret guidance will “sharply curtail” or “dramatically ratchet down” strikes outside war zones, ending signature strikes (killing suspicious people with drones when we are not sure who they are). Hopefully that’s right, but it seems dubious. We do not know how restrictive the current standard is—to what extent it lets the president do what he wants. The rules, at least what leaked in February, were not minimum requirements for strikes on U.S. citizens but assurance that current procedures were legal. Nothing publicly released rules out strikes undertaken by some less restrictive process. And, as a bureaucratic procedure, not law, there is no reason that the President cannot change the standard in secret tomorrow or why the next president should use it.